[ExI] Another Fermi Paradox Paper

BillK pharos at gmail.com
Thu May 19 10:24:17 UTC 2022


The fact that we can’t find aliens may not be due to us, but to them!
By Charlie Elliott   18 May 2022

<http://techzle.com/the-fact-that-we-cant-find-aliens-may-not-be-due-to-us-but-to-them>

Quotes:
We haven’t found any aliens yet. And that may have a macabre reason;
the aliens are (before we can see them) doomed to destroy their
civilization or – in the best case scenario – put their expansionism
on the back burner.

Researchers come up with this hypothesis in the Journal of the Royal
Society Interface. The hypothesis is loosely based on what we see
happening in cities here on Earth. “Other scientists have already
determined that cities are growing in ways that are unsustainable in
the long term,” said study researcher Michael Wong. Scientias.nl from.
“It is because resource consumption increases disproportionately as
cities grow.” And that is obviously a problem. Because it means that
there will come a time when cities will, for example, need more energy
than is available. “It results in crises we call ‘singularities’ where
population and energy demand increase endlessly over a finite period
of time.” In such a scenario, civilization is doomed to run into
shortages, causing – without intervention – the entire system to
collapse.

Innovation

The only way to avert or at least postpone such a crisis is to come up
with innovations. But because the population and energy demand in a
growing city are increasing exponentially, those innovations will have
to follow each other more and more quickly if we want to prevent a
crisis. And therein lies the challenge. Not just for us. But also
possible, the researchers argue in their research article, for aliens.
“We hypothesize that planetary civilizations behave like cities,” Wong
said. “And if that’s the case, sooner or later they’ll hit a limit
that limits their growth. We call this boundary ‘asymptotic burnout’:
an ultimate crisis in which the time that elapses between
singularities (or crises, ed.) is shorter than the time between
innovations.” In other words, the aliens are innovating too slowly to
escape their self-created fate.

Downfall or other priorities

When such an asymptotic burnout threatens, there are actually two
options, say Wong and colleague Stuart Bartlett. One: the alien
civilization is either oblivious or burying its head in the sand and
completely collapses. Or, two, the aliens become aware that they are
headed for their doom and change course. “They prioritize homeostasis:
a state in which cosmic expansion is no longer a goal.” In both
scenarios, it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to detect the
aliens from a considerable distance. Because in the first scenario,
they, or at least the advanced and therefore detectable civilization
they once formed, are no more. And in the second scenario, they are no
longer focused on exploring space or increasing and proclaiming their
presence, but on preserving what they have. “Unbridled growth and
productivity gives way to a focus on health, balance and maximum
longevity,” says Wong.
--------------------------

Original Research Paper here:-
<https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2022.0029>

This idea sounds reasonable to me. Currently our civilisation is
looking for a new innovation - Fusion energy - to catch up with our
energy requirements. Reducing oil consumption cannot be replaced by
solar power and wind power. If a new energy resource cannot be found,
then the shortages could well lead to new World Wars. A shrinkage of
our civilisation, with the remnants forced to 'live within their
means' no longer seems out of the question.

BillK



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