[ExI] paradox perhaps

[Mike Dougherty]

On Wed, Sep 14, 2022, 7:28 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Suppose you sign the mountaintop log book and note the previous visitor
> was 10 days previous.  With only that information, one might estimate that
> visitors come to the peak about every 10 days or so.  But what if… you
> rigged a switch on the box which contains the log book which did nothing
> more than set an LCD display to that day’s date any time anyone opened the
> box?  Then suppose you walk up, notice the display read 10 days ago.  But
> you didn’t open the box.  Rather you left without signing the book.  Then
> what would you estimate the frequency of visit?  Every 20 days?
>
> If you started to leave, but then reconsidered, turned back, signed the
> book, would your estimate of frequency of visit revert to 10 days?
>
> Do explain please.
>
Seriously?  You don't estimate a trend from a single data point.

No wait, *I* don't estimate a trend from a single data point.

I would assume time of year impacts average daily temperature which impacts
the likelihood of visits to remote hiking locations.  ...and now we're back
to talking about the weather.

I'd be looking at other statistics nerd details like total visits per year,
average per month/week, weeks/months above and below average by 1 or 2
StDev, etc.  Based on names only, can we infer gender?  If you have "from"
details, do you know average distance traveled?

C'mon... we can't even begin to consider normative intervals until we've
investigated the islands, shorelines, and overall topology of the data
we're exploring.

>
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