[ExI] paradox perhaps

spike at rainier66.com spike at rainier66.com
Thu Sep 15 00:21:17 UTC 2022



From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat
Sent: Wednesday, 14 September, 2022 4:57 PM
To: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: Mike Dougherty <msd001 at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] paradox perhaps


On Wed, Sep 14, 2022, 7:28 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> > wrote:

Suppose you sign the mountaintop log book and note the previous visitor was 10 days previous…

If you started to leave, but then reconsidered, turned back, signed the book, would your estimate of frequency of visit revert to 10 days?

Do explain please.

>…Seriously?  You don't estimate a trend from a single data point.


>…No wait, *I* don't estimate a trend from a single data point. 


>…I would assume time of year impacts average daily temperature which impacts the likelihood of visits to remote hiking locations.  ...and now we're back to talking about the weather…




Mike I was setting you up for the follow-on question.  We know you can’t get a reasonable estimate from one observation.  But this all leads back to the LIGO results.  I am more interested in LIGO than I am in how often Sierra peaks are visited.  The whole thing starts to get a bit quantum mechanicsey if you ask yourself: did your observation somehow impact the estimate?  That’s where quantum mechanics ends up going: the observer does influence reality.


Mike one minor detail: it isn’t a trend but rather only one number based on one number.  Is it possible to estimate  a span between visits with *any* level of confidence (and if so, what confidence?) based on the time since the last visit?



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