[ExI] paradox perhaps

[Mike Dougherty]

On Wed, Sep 14, 2022, 8:23 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Mike one minor detail: it isn’t a trend but rather only one number based
> on one number.  Is it possible to estimate  a span between visits with *
> *any** level of confidence (and if so, what confidence?) based on the
> time since the last visit?
>
I say no.

What you are proposing feels to me like asking if it is possible to predict
the outcome of a fair coin flip based on the result of a previous coin flip.

We tend to apply "common sense" when context is unavailable/insufficient.

What makes 'quantum events' so "spooky" and strange is that common sense is
non-applicable.

I don't think we should assert probility of future black hole merges based
on prior observations: we might have witnessed a fireworks finale that
might be followed by silence for years/decades/millennia.  Maybe we could
assert a distribution of black holes in a volume of space and determine the
probability they'll come within striking distance of neighbors within a
period of time?  tbh, I'm not sure how to reason about what LIGO actually
detects- I can't determine direction from bass sound with wavelengths
longer than my head is wide... are gravity waves similar?

And that's why/how common sense fails us: you are drawing parallels to
mountaintop logbook signatures, i am grasping at straws like
bass/infrasound - but neither of those are good surrogates for what LIGO is
actually measuring.

It is fun to think about though :)

>
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