[ExI] Occam's razor

Gadersd gadersd at gmail.com
Fri Jan 20 22:27:03 UTC 2023

In the limit simpler theories are more likely to be correct than more complex theories. Algorithmic information theory has codified this principle in rigorous mathematics. There is a proof that the preference of simpler theories, in this case measured in the number of bits defining computer programs, leads to a guarantee of being correct in the long run. Additionally it is proven that this preference in algorithmic information theory leads to correctness more rapidly than other method. A preference for more complex theories on the other hand has no such guarantee.

> On Jan 20, 2023, at 5:12 PM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> Just reading An Immense World, by Ed Jong (author of I Contain Multitudes).  Surprisingly, he makes a common error:  he wrote that Occam's Razor meant that the simplest explanation is the best.  Totally wrong.  It is as likely to be wrong as any other explanation.
> It means that the simplest explanation is preferred because it involves the fewest assumptions (entities, Occam wrote), and as we know, assumptions can be wrong.
> Agree?   bill w
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