[ExI] Occam's razor

[William Flynn Wallace]

It seems that what you wrote illustrates the principle.  More complex
theories naturally have more assumptions which can go wrong.   But - there
are no simple theories which can explain complex phenomena.  bill w

On Fri, Jan 20, 2023 at 4:28 PM Gadersd via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> In the limit simpler theories are more likely to be correct than more
> complex theories. Algorithmic information theory has codified this
> principle in rigorous mathematics. There is a proof that the preference of
> simpler theories, in this case measured in the number of bits defining
> computer programs, leads to a guarantee of being correct in the long run.
> Additionally it is proven that this preference in algorithmic information
> theory leads to correctness more rapidly than other method. A preference
> for more complex theories on the other hand has no such guarantee.
>
> On Jan 20, 2023, at 5:12 PM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Just reading An Immense World, by Ed Jong (author of I Contain
> Multitudes).  Surprisingly, he makes a common error:  he wrote that Occam's
> Razor meant that the simplest explanation is the best.  Totally wrong.  It
> is as likely to be wrong as any other explanation.
>
> It means that the simplest explanation is preferred because it involves
> the fewest assumptions (entities, Occam wrote), and as we know, assumptions
> can be wrong.
>
> Agree?   bill w
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