[ExI] Occam's razor

[Gadersd]

If a phenomena is complex, then use a complex theory, but only as complex as needed. Einstein once said, "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” If two theories explain the data equally well, choose the simpler one. The principle of simplicity > complexity still holds all else being equal.

> On Jan 20, 2023, at 7:18 PM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> 
> It seems that what you wrote illustrates the principle.  More complex theories naturally have more assumptions which can go wrong.   But - there are no simple theories which can explain complex phenomena.  bill w
> 
> On Fri, Jan 20, 2023 at 4:28 PM Gadersd via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>> wrote:
> In the limit simpler theories are more likely to be correct than more complex theories. Algorithmic information theory has codified this principle in rigorous mathematics. There is a proof that the preference of simpler theories, in this case measured in the number of bits defining computer programs, leads to a guarantee of being correct in the long run. Additionally it is proven that this preference in algorithmic information theory leads to correctness more rapidly than other method. A preference for more complex theories on the other hand has no such guarantee.
> 
>> On Jan 20, 2023, at 5:12 PM, William Flynn Wallace via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org <mailto:extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>> wrote:
>> 
>> Just reading An Immense World, by Ed Jong (author of I Contain Multitudes).  Surprisingly, he makes a common error:  he wrote that Occam's Razor meant that the simplest explanation is the best.  Totally wrong.  It is as likely to be wrong as any other explanation.
>> 
>> It means that the simplest explanation is preferred because it involves the fewest assumptions (entities, Occam wrote), and as we know, assumptions can be wrong.
>> 
>> Agree?   bill w
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