[ExI] Fwd: On Large-language models

[Jason Resch]

I researched this question a few years ago, and reached the following
conclusions:

https://alwaysasking.com/when-will-ai-take-over/

In 2013, Vincent C. Muller and Nick Bostrom surveyed over 500 AI
researchers.

When asked “When is [Artificial General Intelligence] likely to happen?”

10% of respondents thought it would happen by 2022
50% of respondents thought it would happen by 2040
90% of respondents thought it would happen by 2075

Interestingly, an economic model in 1960 predicted the economy would go
hyperbolic towards Infinity in 2027 A.D. ± 5.5 years.

https://alwaysasking.com/when-will-ai-take-over/#The_Doomsday_Equation

What is interesting is this data for this model existed back in ancient and
medieval times. So an economist in ancient Rome could have predicted this
same time frame based on data available then.

Jason


On Fri, May 19, 2023, 12:06 AM Keith Henson via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> My wife sent me this question:
>
> > As a comment to our presentation about GPT 3.5 and 4 at this morning's
> > forum, one of my coworkers proposed a question to ask an AI: "GPT4,
> > what is the date that the machines finally take over the world?"
>
> I have Bing (GPT4) through Skype so I asked. and got a verbose reply:
>
> *****
>
> There is no definitive answer to your question, as different sources
> may have different definitions and predictions of when machines will
> take over the world. However, some possible dates are:
>
> •  July 19, 1987: According to the movie Maximum Overdrive, based on a
> short story by Stephen King, this is the date when the Earth crosses
> the tail of a comet and machines suddenly become sentient and
> homicidalhttps://
> en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_Overdrivehttps://www.imdb.com/title/tt0091499/
> .
>
> •  2025-2040: According to some estimates, this is the range of years
> when computer processing power will be able to execute as many
> simultaneous calculations as the human brain, potentially leading to
> artificial general intelligence (AGI) and the technological
> singularityhttps://
> www.startribune.com/how-the-machines-will-take-over/304830181/https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/reaching-singularity-may-be-humanitys-greatest-and-last-accomplishment-180974528/
> .
>
> •  2045: According to futurist Ray Kurzweil, this is the year when the
> singularity will occur, meaning that machines will surpass human
> intelligence and become capable of
> self-improvementhttps://
> www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/reaching-singularity-may-be-humanitys-greatest-and-last-accomplishment-180974528/
> .
>
> •  Early 2020s: According to some researchers, this is the time when
> quantum computing could enable machines to reach the singularity
> faster than expectedhttps://
> www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/reaching-singularity-may-be-humanitys-greatest-and-last-accomplishment-180974528/
> .
>
> Of course, these are all speculative scenarios and there is no
> guarantee that any of them will happen. There are also many ethical,
> social and technical challenges that may prevent or delay machines
> from taking over the world. Therefore, it is wise to be cautious but
> not fearful of the future of AI.
>
> ******
>
> GPT is not human, but it has been trained to act like it is human by
> humans.
>
> It quibbles over how soon, but does not deny that machines will at
> some point take over the world.
>
> The last sentence is pure soothing PR.
>
> Wow.
>
> Keith
>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20230519/ffabd616/attachment.htm>