[ExI] Fwd: On Large-language models

[Brent Allsop]

Wow, fascinating.

On Thu, May 18, 2023, 11:31 PM Jason Resch via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> I researched this question a few years ago, and reached the following
> conclusions:
>
> https://alwaysasking.com/when-will-ai-take-over/
>
> In 2013, Vincent C. Muller and Nick Bostrom surveyed over 500 AI
> researchers.
>
> When asked “When is [Artificial General Intelligence] likely to happen?”
>
> 10% of respondents thought it would happen by 2022
> 50% of respondents thought it would happen by 2040
> 90% of respondents thought it would happen by 2075
>
> Interestingly, an economic model in 1960 predicted the economy would go
> hyperbolic towards Infinity in 2027 A.D. ± 5.5 years.
>
> https://alwaysasking.com/when-will-ai-take-over/#The_Doomsday_Equation
>
> What is interesting is this data for this model existed back in ancient
> and medieval times. So an economist in ancient Rome could have predicted
> this same time frame based on data available then.
>
> Jason
>
>
> On Fri, May 19, 2023, 12:06 AM Keith Henson via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> My wife sent me this question:
>>
>> > As a comment to our presentation about GPT 3.5 and 4 at this morning's
>> > forum, one of my coworkers proposed a question to ask an AI: "GPT4,
>> > what is the date that the machines finally take over the world?"
>>
>> I have Bing (GPT4) through Skype so I asked. and got a verbose reply:
>>
>> *****
>>
>> There is no definitive answer to your question, as different sources
>> may have different definitions and predictions of when machines will
>> take over the world. However, some possible dates are:
>>
>> •  July 19, 1987: According to the movie Maximum Overdrive, based on a
>> short story by Stephen King, this is the date when the Earth crosses
>> the tail of a comet and machines suddenly become sentient and
>> homicidalhttps://
>> en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_Overdrivehttps://www.imdb.com/title/tt0091499/
>> .
>>
>> •  2025-2040: According to some estimates, this is the range of years
>> when computer processing power will be able to execute as many
>> simultaneous calculations as the human brain, potentially leading to
>> artificial general intelligence (AGI) and the technological
>> singularityhttps://
>> www.startribune.com/how-the-machines-will-take-over/304830181/https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/reaching-singularity-may-be-humanitys-greatest-and-last-accomplishment-180974528/
>> .
>>
>> •  2045: According to futurist Ray Kurzweil, this is the year when the
>> singularity will occur, meaning that machines will surpass human
>> intelligence and become capable of
>> self-improvementhttps://
>> www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/reaching-singularity-may-be-humanitys-greatest-and-last-accomplishment-180974528/
>> .
>>
>> •  Early 2020s: According to some researchers, this is the time when
>> quantum computing could enable machines to reach the singularity
>> faster than expectedhttps://
>> www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/reaching-singularity-may-be-humanitys-greatest-and-last-accomplishment-180974528/
>> .
>>
>> Of course, these are all speculative scenarios and there is no
>> guarantee that any of them will happen. There are also many ethical,
>> social and technical challenges that may prevent or delay machines
>> from taking over the world. Therefore, it is wise to be cautious but
>> not fearful of the future of AI.
>>
>> ******
>>
>> GPT is not human, but it has been trained to act like it is human by
>> humans.
>>
>> It quibbles over how soon, but does not deny that machines will at
>> some point take over the world.
>>
>> The last sentence is pure soothing PR.
>>
>> Wow.
>>
>> Keith
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> extropy-chat mailing list
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
>> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>>
> _______________________________________________
> extropy-chat mailing list
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org
> http://lists.extropy.org/mailman/listinfo.cgi/extropy-chat
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20230519/b83149ed/attachment.htm>