[ExI] new job

[BillK]

On Fri, 20 Dec 2024 at 05:57, Stuart LaForge via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Have you accounted for the Oberth effect? On April 13, 2029, it will be
> only 13,600 km from Earth and travelling very fast. Any impulse that we
> can give it on that day would have the greatest effect on its kinetic
> energy. There might be a way to use a fancy gravitational slingshot
> around the Earth and the moon to put it in some stable orbit or
> Lagrangian point. My point is that the closest approach is the best time
> to give it a "nudge". Maybe AI can figure out the optimal solution.
>
> Two government space craft are commissioned to go to Apophis in 2029:
> The ESA's RAMSES probe and NASA's Osiris. It would be interesting if
> some private space craft were also at the rendezvous.
>
> Stuart LaForge
> _______________________________________________


So I asked the new Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking Experimental AI.
The answer impressed me, but Gemini thinks it won't be possible by 2029.
To me, this AI response seems to show an AI really properly thinking
through a problem and possible solutions.
These AIs are getting a bit too clever. I'm getting nervous.  :)

BillK

-------------------------
Gemini 2.0

You are absolutely correct to bring up the Oberth effect and the potential
for a gravitational slingshot! These are crucial considerations when
discussing orbital maneuvers, especially during close approaches. Let's
break down how they influence the feasibility of nudging Apophis into orbit:

*The Oberth Effect and Apophis:*

   -

   *You are spot on:* The Oberth effect states that a change in velocity
   (delta-v) is most effective when applied when the spacecraft is traveling
   at its highest speed, which occurs at the periapsis (closest point of
   orbit).
   -

   *Apophis's 2029 Flyby:* During its close approach, Apophis will indeed
   be moving very fast relative to Earth. This means that any impulse we can
   impart to it at that moment will have a disproportionately larger effect on
   its kinetic energy and therefore its trajectory.
   -

   *Implication for Nudging:* This strengthens the argument that a
   strategically timed "nudge" during the close approach could be more
   effective than attempting the same maneuver far away from Earth. A smaller
   impulse could achieve a larger change in trajectory due to the high
   velocity.

*Gravitational Slingshot Potential:*

   -

   *Harnessing Gravity:* A gravitational slingshot uses the gravity of a
   celestial body (like Earth or the Moon) to alter the speed and direction of
   a spacecraft. By carefully approaching and then moving away from the body,
   the spacecraft can gain momentum and change its trajectory.
   -

   *The Fancy Maneuver:* The idea of using a gravitational slingshot around
   both the Earth and the Moon to precisely alter Apophis's trajectory is a
   fascinating one. It leverages the Oberth effect during the close Earth
   approach and then uses the gravitational pull of the Moon to further shape
   the orbit.
   -

   *Potential for Capture:* In theory, a precisely calculated maneuver
   combining an impulse at Earth's periapsis (maximizing the Oberth effect)
   with a subsequent gravitational slingshot around the Moon could
   potentially put Apophis into a bound orbit around the Earth. Lagrangian
   points (L1, L2, etc.) are indeed possibilities, as they are gravitationally
   stable regions.

*However, the Practical Challenges Remain Immense:*

While the Oberth effect and gravitational slingshots offer intriguing
possibilities, the practical difficulties of using them to capture Apophis
into a stable orbit during the 2029 flyby are still significant:

   -

   *Extreme Precision Required:* The calculations and execution of such a
   maneuver would need to be incredibly precise. Even tiny errors in timing,
   direction, or impulse could result in missing the desired orbit or even
   increasing the risk of a future impact. The gravitational influences of
   both Earth and the Moon would need to be modeled with exceptional accuracy.
   -

   *Delta-V Still Significant:* Even with the Oberth effect, the total
   delta-v required to change Apophis's trajectory from a heliocentric orbit
   to a geocentric one (even a temporary or highly elliptical one leading to a
   Lagrangian point) would still be substantial. We would need the capability
   to deliver a significant impulse during the fleeting close approach.
   -

   *Technological Limitations:* Developing the spacecraft and systems
   capable of executing such a complex and precise maneuver within the
   timeframe of the 2029 flyby is a massive technological hurdle. This would
   require advanced propulsion, navigation, and control systems.
   -

   *Risk Assessment:* Attempting such a complex maneuver with a potentially
   hazardous object so close to Earth carries inherent risks. A failed capture
   attempt could leave Apophis on a more dangerous trajectory.
   -

   *Time Constraint:* The window of opportunity during the 2029 flyby is
   very short. We would need to act quickly and precisely.

*A More Realistic Scenario (Though Still Difficult):*

Instead of aiming for a direct stable orbit, a more plausible (though still
incredibly challenging) scenario might be to use the 2029 flyby, leveraging
the Oberth effect, to perform a maneuver that puts Apophis into a *highly
elliptical, temporary Earth orbit*. This orbit would likely be unstable and
require further maneuvers to maintain, but it could be a stepping stone
towards a more stable configuration or a way to study the asteroid in
detail. Even this would require significant technological advancement.

*Conclusion:*

You are correct to highlight the importance of the Oberth effect and
gravitational slingshots. They are indeed tools we could potentially use.
However, while theoretically possible, nudging Apophis into a stable orbit
(or even a temporary one leading to a Lagrangian point) during the 2029
flyby remains *extremely challenging and highly unlikely with our current
technology and within the timeframe available.* The precision, delta-v
requirements, and risk factors are immense.

The focus of current planetary defense efforts remains on *deflection*,
which involves making smaller changes to an asteroid's trajectory much
further in advance, rather than attempting a capture maneuver during a
close approach.

--------------------------------
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20241220/6b08c753/attachment-0001.htm>