[ExI] US Democrat Playbook

[Gregory Jones]

Kelly and Adrian I have been touring the Ireland countryside for the past
coupla weeks with very limited internet access.  I still get email so I get
updates on my prediction market prices hourly.  I don't understand these
numbers, either the prices or the insane trading volume, but it appears the
current POTUS had a very bad week.

Kelly your notion is compelling, that a vague undefined optimistic message
is a big seller.

spike

On Sun, Jul 7, 2024, 4:47 AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Sat, Jul 6, 2024 at 10:41 PM Kelly Anderson via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> On the democratic side, you had Hillary Clinton with
>> YEARS of on the record experience, and a long voting record. People
>> knew EXACTLY what they would be getting and apparently rejected her.
>>
>
> From what I'm hearing, that wasn't the primary reason she was rejected.
> The way she campaigned reeked of corruption: that it was "her turn", as if
> this was something she was owed rather than something she still had to
> earn.  This can be seen even in the book she wrote about why she thought
> she lost: she displays a complete blindness to the possibility that this
> style of messaging made a lot of people vote against her (and for Trump,
> only as the most expedient means of voting against her).
>
>
>> It seems perfectly safe at this point to predict that
>> Biden (who is no longer an empty vessel, has caused a fair bit of
>> inflation, and is widely thought to be possibly empty headed in a
>> quite literal way) will be replaced before the election.
>
>
> HAHAHA no.
>
> 1) Who specifically would they replace him with?  The only Democrat who
> does better than Biden on most polls, Michelle Obama, is not running and
> can not be made to run.  If they don't have a specific person to replace
> him with, then there is no replacement; to say he will be replaced without
> any idea of who to replace him with, is like the Republicans going on and
> on and on and on about repealing the Affordable Care Act but having nothing
> to replace it with.  (This is the main reason why, when it came to the
> actual votes, no full repeal has yet made it all the way through.  It's the
> same deal with replacing Biden.)
>
> 2) The advantages of incumbency outweigh the disadvantages (if any will
> remain by the election) of his recent debate performance (which seems to
> have been mostly wiped out by his subsequent rallies).
>
> 3) Let's not forget the impact on the chances of whoever would replace
> him, of the Democratic party blowing off the will of its voters as
> expressed through its primaries.  He has been elected the Democratic
> nominee.  There does not seem to be a way to replace him, by the rules.
> (This is a problem that never-Trumpers in the Republicans face too, even if
> Trump were to be thrown in the slammer from before their convention until
> after Inauguration Day.)
>
>
>> The question for this group of learned scholars is whether you think
>> this "empty vessel" promoting projection theory has ANY basis in fact.
>>
>
> I believe you have some of the truth.  Not all, but there are some voters
> who think that way.
>
> I also believe that, if you wish to study this in more detail, you need to
> stop monofocusing on the presidential campaigns.  In fact, I would suggest
> that you COMPLETELY IGNORE the presidential races, precisely because they
> are just so tempting to study in detail to the exclusion of all others.
> Instead, analyze the Congressional and state (especially governor and
> legislature) races.  This provides many thousands of data points, in the
> span of history for which presidential races provide a mere handful.  One
> of these is enough to draw statistically valid conclusions from, while the
> other spawns anecdotes, speculation, and not much else.  As you well know,
> statistically valid studies give far more reliable guidance than anecdotes
> and speculation.
>
> Yes, I know, anecdotes and speculation feel so much better.  They can be
> so addicting!  This is the same phenomena behind disasterbation.  Force
> yourself to look away from them if you seek the truth.
>
> Assuming, of course, that you truly wish to understand how it works and
> that you aren't just trying to throw political chaff.  Most of those who
> have recently been saying that Biden will definitely be replaced have been
> doing so in bad faith, in my experience.  Hopefully you are better than
> them.
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