[ExI] US Democrat Playbook

[Gregory Jones]

If anyone here wants to play political gambling, I noticed the VPOTUS had a
terrific week.  When I left, her shares were in the 2 to 3 cent range.  Now
she is selling for 26 cents.  That coulda made some bold investor a tidy
factor of ten profit in one week.

spike

On Sun, Jul 7, 2024, 8:01 AM Gregory Jones <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

> Kelly and Adrian I have been touring the Ireland countryside for the past
> coupla weeks with very limited internet access.  I still get email so I get
> updates on my prediction market prices hourly.  I don't understand these
> numbers, either the prices or the insane trading volume, but it appears the
> current POTUS had a very bad week.
>
> Kelly your notion is compelling, that a vague undefined optimistic message
> is a big seller.
>
> spike
>
> On Sun, Jul 7, 2024, 4:47 AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> On Sat, Jul 6, 2024 at 10:41 PM Kelly Anderson via extropy-chat <
>> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>>> On the democratic side, you had Hillary Clinton with
>>> YEARS of on the record experience, and a long voting record. People
>>> knew EXACTLY what they would be getting and apparently rejected her.
>>>
>>
>> From what I'm hearing, that wasn't the primary reason she was rejected.
>> The way she campaigned reeked of corruption: that it was "her turn", as if
>> this was something she was owed rather than something she still had to
>> earn.  This can be seen even in the book she wrote about why she thought
>> she lost: she displays a complete blindness to the possibility that this
>> style of messaging made a lot of people vote against her (and for Trump,
>> only as the most expedient means of voting against her).
>>
>>
>>> It seems perfectly safe at this point to predict that
>>> Biden (who is no longer an empty vessel, has caused a fair bit of
>>> inflation, and is widely thought to be possibly empty headed in a
>>> quite literal way) will be replaced before the election.
>>
>>
>> HAHAHA no.
>>
>> 1) Who specifically would they replace him with?  The only Democrat who
>> does better than Biden on most polls, Michelle Obama, is not running and
>> can not be made to run.  If they don't have a specific person to replace
>> him with, then there is no replacement; to say he will be replaced without
>> any idea of who to replace him with, is like the Republicans going on and
>> on and on and on about repealing the Affordable Care Act but having nothing
>> to replace it with.  (This is the main reason why, when it came to the
>> actual votes, no full repeal has yet made it all the way through.  It's the
>> same deal with replacing Biden.)
>>
>> 2) The advantages of incumbency outweigh the disadvantages (if any will
>> remain by the election) of his recent debate performance (which seems to
>> have been mostly wiped out by his subsequent rallies).
>>
>> 3) Let's not forget the impact on the chances of whoever would replace
>> him, of the Democratic party blowing off the will of its voters as
>> expressed through its primaries.  He has been elected the Democratic
>> nominee.  There does not seem to be a way to replace him, by the rules.
>> (This is a problem that never-Trumpers in the Republicans face too, even if
>> Trump were to be thrown in the slammer from before their convention until
>> after Inauguration Day.)
>>
>>
>>> The question for this group of learned scholars is whether you think
>>> this "empty vessel" promoting projection theory has ANY basis in fact.
>>>
>>
>> I believe you have some of the truth.  Not all, but there are some voters
>> who think that way.
>>
>> I also believe that, if you wish to study this in more detail, you need
>> to stop monofocusing on the presidential campaigns.  In fact, I would
>> suggest that you COMPLETELY IGNORE the presidential races, precisely
>> because they are just so tempting to study in detail to the exclusion of
>> all others.  Instead, analyze the Congressional and state (especially
>> governor and legislature) races.  This provides many thousands of data
>> points, in the span of history for which presidential races provide a mere
>> handful.  One of these is enough to draw statistically valid conclusions
>> from, while the other spawns anecdotes, speculation, and not much else.  As
>> you well know, statistically valid studies give far more reliable guidance
>> than anecdotes and speculation.
>>
>> Yes, I know, anecdotes and speculation feel so much better.  They can be
>> so addicting!  This is the same phenomena behind disasterbation.  Force
>> yourself to look away from them if you seek the truth.
>>
>> Assuming, of course, that you truly wish to understand how it works and
>> that you aren't just trying to throw political chaff.  Most of those who
>> have recently been saying that Biden will definitely be replaced have been
>> doing so in bad faith, in my experience.  Hopefully you are better than
>> them.
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>>
>
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