[ExI] US Democrat Playbook

[Kelly Anderson]

As soon as any politician gets too concrete, they lose people. If they
remain vague, then people might assume that the candidate thinks like
they do, which is where psychological projection comes in for the
candidate's benefit. If the candidate promises a fowl in every pot,
many might assume a chicken since that's what they would want or think
they would offer, but you don't know if you get a chicken until after
they are elected, in which case you might get merely a pigeon or an
excuse that congress kept them from giving you a chicken. But the
Democratic presidential candidate (I don't think this applies down the
ticket in any way I've been able to see) seems lately to take this to
a whole new level. The same cannot be said of Bill Clinton or Jimmy
Carter as they had records as governors that could not be ignored.
This seems to be a recent phenomenon, if it is at all.

As for whether Biden will in the end be replaced is up to a few
things. First... can they pump enough amphetamines or whatever the
military is using these days to keep pilots alert for 48 hours at a
time into Joe to make him appear cogent in the remaining debates...
and Second... can they come up with a viable alternative candidate. As
you say Michelle Obama keeps coming up, and it is not without
precedent to "draft" someone into running, seemingly against their
will. Or even better some small state governor that nobody knows much
about, because they make the best blank slates. I don't think the vice
president is likely to beat Trump simply on the basis that she's not a
great debater herself and has some record issues.

On Sun, Jul 7, 2024 at 1:02 AM Gregory Jones via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Kelly and Adrian I have been touring the Ireland countryside for the past coupla weeks with very limited internet access.  I still get email so I get updates on my prediction market prices hourly.  I don't understand these numbers, either the prices or the insane trading volume, but it appears the current POTUS had a very bad week.
>
> Kelly your notion is compelling, that a vague undefined optimistic message is a big seller.
>
> spike
>
> On Sun, Jul 7, 2024, 4:47 AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> On Sat, Jul 6, 2024 at 10:41 PM Kelly Anderson via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>>
>>> On the democratic side, you had Hillary Clinton with
>>> YEARS of on the record experience, and a long voting record. People
>>> knew EXACTLY what they would be getting and apparently rejected her.
>>
>>
>> From what I'm hearing, that wasn't the primary reason she was rejected.  The way she campaigned reeked of corruption: that it was "her turn", as if this was something she was owed rather than something she still had to earn.  This can be seen even in the book she wrote about why she thought she lost: she displays a complete blindness to the possibility that this style of messaging made a lot of people vote against her (and for Trump, only as the most expedient means of voting against her).
>>
>>>
>>> It seems perfectly safe at this point to predict that
>>> Biden (who is no longer an empty vessel, has caused a fair bit of
>>> inflation, and is widely thought to be possibly empty headed in a
>>> quite literal way) will be replaced before the election.
>>
>>
>> HAHAHA no.
>>
>> 1) Who specifically would they replace him with?  The only Democrat who does better than Biden on most polls, Michelle Obama, is not running and can not be made to run.  If they don't have a specific person to replace him with, then there is no replacement; to say he will be replaced without any idea of who to replace him with, is like the Republicans going on and on and on and on about repealing the Affordable Care Act but having nothing to replace it with.  (This is the main reason why, when it came to the actual votes, no full repeal has yet made it all the way through.  It's the same deal with replacing Biden.)
>>
>> 2) The advantages of incumbency outweigh the disadvantages (if any will remain by the election) of his recent debate performance (which seems to have been mostly wiped out by his subsequent rallies).
>>
>> 3) Let's not forget the impact on the chances of whoever would replace him, of the Democratic party blowing off the will of its voters as expressed through its primaries.  He has been elected the Democratic nominee.  There does not seem to be a way to replace him, by the rules.  (This is a problem that never-Trumpers in the Republicans face too, even if Trump were to be thrown in the slammer from before their convention until after Inauguration Day.)
>>
>>>
>>> The question for this group of learned scholars is whether you think
>>> this "empty vessel" promoting projection theory has ANY basis in fact.
>>
>>
>> I believe you have some of the truth.  Not all, but there are some voters who think that way.
>>
>> I also believe that, if you wish to study this in more detail, you need to stop monofocusing on the presidential campaigns.  In fact, I would suggest that you COMPLETELY IGNORE the presidential races, precisely because they are just so tempting to study in detail to the exclusion of all others.  Instead, analyze the Congressional and state (especially governor and legislature) races.  This provides many thousands of data points, in the span of history for which presidential races provide a mere handful.  One of these is enough to draw statistically valid conclusions from, while the other spawns anecdotes, speculation, and not much else.  As you well know, statistically valid studies give far more reliable guidance than anecdotes and speculation.
>>
>> Yes, I know, anecdotes and speculation feel so much better.  They can be so addicting!  This is the same phenomena behind disasterbation.  Force yourself to look away from them if you seek the truth.
>>
>> Assuming, of course, that you truly wish to understand how it works and that you aren't just trying to throw political chaff.  Most of those who have recently been saying that Biden will definitely be replaced have been doing so in bad faith, in my experience.  Hopefully you are better than them.
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