[ExI] Kurzweil shares five key insights from his new book, The Singularity Is Nearer

[Keith Henson]

> I don't see the FDA magically becoming
something it is not now.

I don't think it matters much.  The most significant antiaging
substances are not regulated to any extent;

Re your thoughts on LOAR, that seems to be the curretn situation with
respect to AI.  I think the key factor is "Does it make money" and
once that happens it attracts more and more money.  Toward the end of
Drexler's Radical Abundance, he discusses how the path to his vision
was derailed.  Had there been a money-making product, I think the
history would have been very different.

Keith

On Tue, Jul 16, 2024 at 9:04 AM Kelly Anderson via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Having read the book, the argument for anti-aging is that the current
> advances in AI with protein folding, biological simulation and
> personalized medicine based on that kind of approach, will turn
> medicine from a "throw it at the wall and see if it sticks" kind of
> approach to testing proteins we find in the wild into the kind of
> information technology that the law of accelerating returns can be
> applied to. While that is an interesting hypothesis, there was not a
> detailed statement that I can recall relating to where and when we are
> on that curve currently. If indeed AI turns anti-aging tech into
> something that the LOAR can be applied to, there is still the question
> of whether we are far enough up that curve currently to be able to
> accomplish something meaningful in 5 years. There is, in particular,
> and overly optimistic idea that the FDA will be able to speed things
> up given that testing can be done in silicon, rather than in real
> people in the real world. I don't see the FDA magically becoming
> something it is not now. Transhumanism is our thing... but do we
> really believe in Transgovernmentalism?
>
> So while I get that Ray's hopes are that he will not die any time
> soon, and that might shade his perspective as his own age goes up...
> maybe he's trying to convince people to create a future. Like they
> say, to create a future you have to envision it first. And Ray
> Bradbury, Isaac Asimov and others including, Gene Roddenberry and Ray
> Kurtzweil have helped us envision things, some stuff comes true faster
> than others.
>
> I really do think the LOAR is a real thing. The leap of faith is that
> AI will turn medicine into one of the things that the LOAR can be
> applied to. Personally, it seems logical that it could, and almost
> certainly will at some point. I do wonder about the basis for this
> particular timeline, as this most recent book wasn't nearly as
> breathtaking as TSIN (2005)...
>
> -Kelly
>
> On Wed, Jul 10, 2024 at 4:18 PM BillK via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> > The article provides the details for each prediction.
> > BillK
> >
> > <https://nextbigideaclub.com/magazine/merging-ai-mean-humanity-according-futurist-ray-kurzweil-bookbite/50146/>
> >
> > Quotes:
> > 1. Information technology is advancing at an exponential rate.
> > 2. Artificial intelligence will reach and immediately soar past
> >     human-level intelligence by 2029.
> > 3. We will solve aging in the next five to ten years by applying AI to medicine.
> > 4. AI is about to leap from transforming the digital world to
> >     transforming the physical world.
> > 5. By 2045, we will reach the Singularity and expand our intelligence
> >     a millionfold.
> > --------------------------------
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