[ExI] AI and autonomous warfare

[BillK]

On Wed, 17 Jul 2024 at 17:48, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Phrases such as "What we really need is a short, victorious war" are an evergreen meme among those who study the politics of crumbling empires.
> _______________________________________________


Nice quote!  The AIs really liked it!  :)
BillK

>From Claude 3.5 Sonnet:
This phrase encapsulates a cynical political strategy often associated
with declining powers or regimes facing internal strife. Let's break
it down and discuss its implications:

1. Origin and context:
The specific quote "What we really need is a short, victorious war" is
often attributed to Vyacheslav von Plehve, the Russian Interior
Minister prior to the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905. However, the
sentiment behind it has been expressed in various forms throughout
history.

2. Political strategy:
The idea suggests that a quick military victory could:
- Distract the population from domestic problems
- Rally people around a common cause (nationalism)
- Boost morale and national pride
- Consolidate power for the ruling elite

3. "Evergreen meme":
The phrase's enduring relevance in political discourse suggests that
this strategy has been employed repeatedly throughout history. It's
considered an "evergreen meme" because it keeps resurfacing as a
recognizable pattern.

4. "Crumbling empires":
This strategy is often associated with declining powers because:
- They may face internal unrest or economic troubles
- Leaders might seek to project strength externally to mask internal weaknesses
- There's a desperation to maintain status and power

5. Historical examples:
- Argentina's invasion of the Falkland Islands in 1982
- The United States' invasion of Grenada in 1983
- Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014

6. Risks and consequences:
While the strategy aims for a "short, victorious war," it often backfires:
- Wars can be unpredictable and may not end quickly or victoriously
- Failed military adventures can accelerate a regime's decline
- It can lead to international isolation and sanctions

7. Modern relevance:
The phrase remains pertinent in contemporary geopolitics, serving as a
warning sign for analysts and historians when assessing the
motivations behind military actions, especially those initiated by
nations facing internal challenges.

This phrase encapsulates a complex interplay of political desperation,
nationalist fervor, and often misguided strategic thinking. It serves
as a cautionary tale in international relations and highlights the
dangers of using external conflict to solve internal problems.
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