[ExI] AI and autonomous warfare

[Adrian Tymes]

The AI demonstrates good understanding of the phrase - but then, to do so
it only needs to summarize stuff that's been widely documented for a long
time, which is something the AI excels at.

On Wed, Jul 17, 2024 at 1:17 PM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Wed, 17 Jul 2024 at 17:48, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> > Phrases such as "What we really need is a short, victorious war" are an
> evergreen meme among those who study the politics of crumbling empires.
> > _______________________________________________
>
>
> Nice quote!  The AIs really liked it!  :)
> BillK
>
> From Claude 3.5 Sonnet:
> This phrase encapsulates a cynical political strategy often associated
> with declining powers or regimes facing internal strife. Let's break
> it down and discuss its implications:
>
> 1. Origin and context:
> The specific quote "What we really need is a short, victorious war" is
> often attributed to Vyacheslav von Plehve, the Russian Interior
> Minister prior to the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905. However, the
> sentiment behind it has been expressed in various forms throughout
> history.
>
> 2. Political strategy:
> The idea suggests that a quick military victory could:
> - Distract the population from domestic problems
> - Rally people around a common cause (nationalism)
> - Boost morale and national pride
> - Consolidate power for the ruling elite
>
> 3. "Evergreen meme":
> The phrase's enduring relevance in political discourse suggests that
> this strategy has been employed repeatedly throughout history. It's
> considered an "evergreen meme" because it keeps resurfacing as a
> recognizable pattern.
>
> 4. "Crumbling empires":
> This strategy is often associated with declining powers because:
> - They may face internal unrest or economic troubles
> - Leaders might seek to project strength externally to mask internal
> weaknesses
> - There's a desperation to maintain status and power
>
> 5. Historical examples:
> - Argentina's invasion of the Falkland Islands in 1982
> - The United States' invasion of Grenada in 1983
> - Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014
>
> 6. Risks and consequences:
> While the strategy aims for a "short, victorious war," it often backfires:
> - Wars can be unpredictable and may not end quickly or victoriously
> - Failed military adventures can accelerate a regime's decline
> - It can lead to international isolation and sanctions
>
> 7. Modern relevance:
> The phrase remains pertinent in contemporary geopolitics, serving as a
> warning sign for analysts and historians when assessing the
> motivations behind military actions, especially those initiated by
> nations facing internal challenges.
>
> This phrase encapsulates a complex interplay of political desperation,
> nationalist fervor, and often misguided strategic thinking. It serves
> as a cautionary tale in international relations and highlights the
> dangers of using external conflict to solve internal problems.
> -------------------------
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