[ExI] interesting take on nuclear power

[Dylan Distasio]

Respectfully, I'm curious how you have odds of even close to 50% of the
Singularity happening by 2030.   What is behind this optimism?   I don't
see the nanotechnology anywhere close to where it would need to be to
manipulate matter at the atomic level and self replicate, and am very
skeptical that any current AI approaches are going to lead to AGI by 2030.
 Multi modal LLMs are certainly impressive in some respects, but I, as an
admitted amateur, don't see much pointing towards the Singularity by 2030.

This question is asked in earnest as I would love to hear why my skepticism
is misplaced.

While I am in the camp that substrate is not important for consciousness,
what if we're wrong there, and Penrose (or someone with another theory
where substrate indeed does matter) gets the last laugh.

On Fri, Mar 8, 2024 at 11:37 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Fri, Mar 8, 2024 at 8:10 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> I have no confidence in nuclear fission.  Think about it in the
>> background of this list.  We are most likely only a few years from the
>> singularity.  Do you really think "the powers that be" would bother
>> with fission in a world where they can grow PV like Kudzu?
>>
>
> Sure, if they weren't certain they could do exactly that in the very
> near future.  I'd put over 50% odds of the Singularity not happening until
> at least 2030, which is more than a few years away still.
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