[ExI] Birthrate falling worldwide - not just in the developed nations

[efc at disroot.org]

On Thu, 31 Oct 2024, BillK via extropy-chat wrote:

> On Thu, 31 Oct 2024 at 21:29, david via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> There are two aspects to evolution (well. there's more, but two we are
>> concerned about here)
>> 1/ The slow accumulation of mutations
>> 2/ Selection within existing range
>>
>> (1) as you say, is far too slow to have any effect on the birth rate
>> before humans would go extinct.
>> (2) however, can be as fast as a single generation.
>>
>> Consider an insect population where a gene confers a pesticide
>> resistance. If even 1% of the population has that gene, widespread use
>> of the pesticide would see 100% of the population have it within very
>> few generations.
>>
>> It is the same for humans, if not as extreme.  Children will be born to
>> those who continue to have multiple children despite affluence or
>> lifestyle. There may be a temporary drop in population while those who
>> choose not to (or can't) have children remove themselves from the gene
>> pool, but the harsh laws of evolution say they will be replaced by those
>> who can and will.
>>
>> -David.
>> _______________________________________________
>
>
> The population trends expect the fall in birth rates to continue, at
> least up to about 2100.
> There will be some groups, as you say, that might continue to have
> many children, but they will not be enough to counter the general
> world population decline. Humans are not insects. People are choosing
> not to have more than 1 child. The children from large families will
> be growing up in a very different world with an ageing population and
> they are likely to decide for themselves to have few children.
>
> BillK

I'm not at all sure we can say they would be likely to decide to have 
fewer children. After all...  God blessed Noah and his sons and said 
to them, “Be fruitful and multiply and fill the earth. . ;)

Jokes aside, yes, there will be a dip for sure, but nothing science and 
technology cannot handle. The cultures that value children and big 
families will then slowly start to grow and the cultures and communities 
that do not value children, will slowly start to disappear.