[ExI] SpaceX Super Heavy and Space Solar

BillK pharos at gmail.com
Mon Oct 21 17:18:47 UTC 2024


On Mon, 21 Oct 2024 at 14:50, Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> On Mon, Oct 21, 2024 at 4:47 AM efc--- via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>  Note for context: I am working on a rocket system that - if everything goes absolutely, unreasonably right - might result in 100-200 tons to LEO service in a decade, with $100/kg or less.  While that point is way too far out to guarantee service yet, I am at least academically interested in what happens to these numbers if the cost drops to, say, $80/kg, or $50/kg.  Lower $/kg becomes easier to justify the higher the annual flight rate gets - but requires a larger, less feasible amount of funding, especially if it comes from a single project like this.  (One could imagine competing constellations, both using the same launch provider, to get up to a net total of 1/3rd of humanity's power consumption in only 20 years, but this is highly unlikely without a far lower cost option for someone to go first.)
>
> So, at what $/kg does at least a prototype solar power satellite constellation become remotely fundable?  And how small could such a prototype be to make sense for a specialized use case that could justify a higher $/kWh?
> _______________________________________________


The efficiency of PV solar panels continues to improve.
So would waiting a few years for better panels be a good idea?
(Though this reminds me of delaying computer purchases because next
year's model will always be better).  :)

BillK



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