[ExI] Trump Is Doubling Down on His Disastrous A.I. Chip Policy

[John Clark]

On Thu, Dec 18, 2025 at 3:22 PM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

*> The paradox in selling advanced Nvidia processors to a future enemy is
> that it can be seen as the US answer to China’s overbuilt rare earth
> refinery capability in a way.  *


*Rare Earths are important but advanced AI chips are a much MUCH more
strategic resource. And He Who Must Not Be Named has just thrown that huge
advantage away. Although I must admit that his decision to do it has
benefited me personally because I own Nvidia stock.*


*> That the USA can produce more advanced processors at a lower cost than
> China is known.  *


*Actually the USA, and Nvidia in particular, design and pay for the
manufacture of those advanced chips but they are manufactured in Taiwan.
I'm pretty sure if China where to invade Taiwan the huge but delicate chip
fabrication plants on that island would no longer be functional, and even
if they were there would be very few people still around who knew how to
operate them. If that were to happen it would hurt both the USA and China
and the entire world, but it would hurt the US more than it hurt China, so
they might figure it would still be a worthwhile endeavor because it would
give China time to catch up in the AI race.  *


*> If the USA sells them to China, they can of course use them in their
> weapons development, but… they are less likely to develop their own
> advanced microprocessors.  *


*I've heard of that theory. Jensen Huang, the head of Nvidia, has been
pushing it very hard. But I don't buy it. China is never going to be
comfortable being dependent on an economic and potentially military
adversary for something as strategically important as cutting edge AI
chips. So regardless of what the US does, sell the chips to China or refuse
to do so, China is going to use all the resources at its disposal (which is
quite a lot) to develop their own completely internal advanced chip
manufacturing supply chain, and in fact they've already started to do so.  *

*Speaking of Jensen Huang, he's a fascinating character, I recently read
two books about him that I enthusiastically recommend, "The Thinking
Machine" by Stephen Witt and "The Nvidia Way" by Tae Kim. Jensen Huang, an
immigrant to the USA, started Nvidia in 1993 with almost no money,
virtually pocket change, and has been the company's only CEO, and he has
managed to grow it so fast that today Nvidia is the richest corporation on
planet earth.   *



> *> Selling a tool of this power to your own enemy seems wrong, but in a
> way it might be just the thing.  *


*Would you have said that if Joe Biden had made the decision to sell
advanced AI chips to China instead of He Who Must Not Be Named?  *


*John K Clark*
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