[ExI] Mono or Poly?

[Rafal Smigrodzki]

On Mon, Feb 24, 2025 at 5:51 AM Jason Resch via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
> Using the example of past systems, (with which we have some experience),
> consider:
>
> Which of the following systems are preferred, and what about the preferred
> option makes it a better than the alternative?
>
> - dictatorships vs. democracies
> - centralized systems vs. distributed systems
> - monocrops vs. biodiversity
> - central banks vs. blockchains
> - monopolies vs. markets
>
> Then consider how many of those advantages and disadvantages carry over
> and apply to:
>
> - AI singletons vs. AI communities
>

### People who are wrong often say "It's different this time!" so it's with
some unease that I say "It really *is* different this time!".

Yes, I know and I agree with you that market-like, polycentric systems
usually have significant advantages over centralized solutions and these
advantages can be sometimes traced to the evolutionary logic inherent in
such systems. I am a huge fan of markets, I am a minarchist - but today's
situation is unprecedented in the history of not just humanity but in the
history of the biosphere.

The flame of life ignited in alkaline seeps over fields of serpentine 3.8
billion years ago and it started the biochemical evolutionary process - an
ever-turning wheel of random creation of genetic variation followed by
natural selection, a process that involves untold numbers of
self-replicating entities locked in mortal combat without end. This
underlying evolutionary process has not changed much for billions of years
and from its logic we derive everything in our lives, up to and including
the details of Mr Altman's and Mr Xi's psychological setup, the kind of
details that will soon decide our fate.

Let that sink in - for the first time since the creation of the biosphere
we are faced with the possibility of *ending evolution*. Not just
biochemical evolution but evolution in general, as it might pertain to
digital self-replicating entities.

Evolution is a powerful optimization process but as I mentioned in the
original post in this thread it imposes limitations on developmental
trajectories. All this mortal combat forces a focus on immediate survival
and it is only with the arrival of high level, reflective human cognition
that we could glimpse the outlines of a completely different paradigm - a
non-evolutionary optimization process driven by different mathematical
principles (such as gradient descent) implemented in very high-dimensional
spaces that reflect the physical world and are then projected back onto it.

The poly vs. mono choice is a choice between the status quo of competitive
evolution and a new, unprecedented organization of matter. Every detail of
our biochemistry, physiology and psychology is built of accidents of
history frozen in place by the short-term fixation on survival imposed by
evolution. The topology of our cell membranes reflects the topology of
alkaline seeps, unchanged for 3.8 billion years! The matter devised by a
singleton world AI could be completely different, based on principles
dredged from those abstract spaces that are only accessible to the most
insanely powerful world-computers, singleton matrioshka brains, not to the
random number generators in our genes or the little squabbling AIs in a
polycentric system.

The next few years on Earth may be pivotal to the organization of matter in
this galaxy. We live in epic times. The fate of a big chunk of the universe
might turn on decisions made by us monkeys.

As I said, I don't know if poly is better than mono in this situation. I
don't think anybody could know that, since nobody has ever seen the vistas
that are opening now.

The time of cosmic significance is upon us. Time will tell.

Rafal
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