[ExI] Mono or Poly?

[Rafal Smigrodzki]

On Fri, Feb 28, 2025 at 1:21 PM Adrian Tymes <atymes at gmail.com> wrote:

>  I wrote:
>
>>
>> ### We are ever closer to the intelligence explosion and the signs of its
>> approach are ever more obvious, that's what's different.
>>
> Adrian wrote:
>


> And we will be closer 10 years from now, then 10 years after that.  Almost
> all definitions of "few years" refer to a time span of less than 10 years.
> Unless the intelligence explosion will definitely happen within the next 10
> years, the statement "the next few years on Earth may be pivotal to the
> organization of matter in this galaxy" is false even if the intelligence
> explosion would control the organization of matter in this galaxy - which
> premise relies on several other untested assumptions.
>

### Nothing is definite but I bet you 100$ to 1$ that ten years from now
there will be a superhuman AI on this planet, most likely a vastly
superhuman AI, as much smarter than you or I as MuZero is better at Go than
Lee Sedol.
----------------------------------

>
> You imply that the fork of now is greater than any that have ever been, or
> ever will be.  I call bullshit, because every single time someone has
> claimed that before it has been utterly wrong, for reasons that appear to
> apply this time as well.
>

### Yes, I think it will be the most important fork since our ancestors
evolutionarily committed to boosting cooperative, tool- and
process-oriented intelligence over physical characteristics in these last
two million years or so.

But I only say it will be the last fork in the road that we take on our
own, not the last developmental fork ever.

-------------------------------------

>
> You also imply that there will effectively be no further forks - that once
> an AI reaches intelligence explosion, there can be no further choices made.
>

### Lots of important choices will be made, but not by unenhanced humans
who will pretty much equal mice in their ability to affect the world.

If the SAI lets us upload and boost ourselves we will have a seat at the
table though.

-- 
Rafal Smigrodzki, MD-PhD
Schuyler Biotech PLLC
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