[ExI] Mono or Poly?

[Adrian Tymes]

On Mon, Mar 3, 2025 at 4:25 AM Rafal Smigrodzki via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> Nothing is definite but I bet you 100$ to 1$ that ten years from now there
> will be a superhuman AI on this planet, most likely a vastly superhuman AI,
> as much smarter than you or I as MuZero is better at Go than Lee Sedol.
>

No bet.

If you win, then by your hypothesis, money will basically be worthless.
Someone with that attitude, I don't trust will have (or at least, be able
to part with without complications) the money to pay up if I win.

More importantly, how exactly would we define and measure this?
Internationally recognized ladder rankings of Go, as might numerically
compare MuZero to Lee Sedol, do not directly translate to measurements of
overall intelligence.  The bet may prove impossible to adjudicate.

Though, by certain measures there already exist superhuman AIs.  Some would
credit the most well known publicly usable LLMs as such, and computers have
been able to outcompute humans for decades.  If we used those measures,
you'd win the bet already.


> But I only say it will be the last fork in the road that we take on our
> own, not the last developmental fork ever.
>

If superhuman AGI is achieved by upgrading human intelligence - possibly
mind upload, more likely external augmentations resulting in an entity that
is a merger of AI and human - would that still be "we" who drives further
forks after that?


> Lots of important choices will be made, but not by unenhanced humans who
> will pretty much equal mice in their ability to affect the world.
>

That I will agree with, and go further: forms of this exist today.  What
impact on the world does a third world subsistence farmer have, as compared
to a typical worker in an AI company, considering the training and
resources the latter has to increase their productivity?
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