[ExI] Please explain

Tue Mar 11 23:20:36 UTC 2025

I addressed that above. While reasonable people can disagree about the
precise degree of isolationism Trump is aiming for, there is absolutely
zero doubt that Trump wants North America as Fortress USA.

I started this month thinking there was a strong undercurrent of preference
for China over the US in Canada's parliament, but that they were trying to
play Switzerland between the two.
I am now utterly convinced that China owns the entire governing coalition,
and a significant amount of the opposition Conservative Party, lock, stock,
and barrel, through a combination of positive and negative incentives.

Everything about the tariffs on Canada is signalling to Canada, and even
moreso to China, that the situation is unacceptable to Washington. It may
be one of the few things the Executive branch, the state Department, and
the CIA agree on.

On Mon, Mar 10, 2025 at 4:18 AM Kelly Anderson via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> This is my best shot at trying to make sense of it from a US centric
> perspective. Trump is NOTHING if not USA First.
>
> Trump is a deal maker. It is what he knows, and he plays dirty. He
> knows that to get a great deal, he has to negotiate really hard with
> both sides. One of the key points of negotiation is that unless you
> are ready to say "no!" and be seen to mean it, you can't get the best
> deal. I think he's REALLY interested in the mining deal with Ukraine,
> to pay for the expenses not only now, but into the future, and he's
> willing to let people die in Ukraine for a minute to get that. I'll
> take him at his word that he's tired of supporting combatants that are
> killing each other in a war of attrition and that he thinks Europe
> should shoulder more of the responsibilities, especially financially.
> If you look at Europe's response over the last week, Trump has
> accomplished his goal of getting Europe to step up and defend their
> own backyard. They are shitting their pants in a race to rearm Europe.
> Ukraine is, unfortunately, a pawn here. His most recent move of
> stopping all satellite intelligence, including private US satellite
> companies, from getting to Ukraine is a big deal and almost seems
> unnecessary, unless viewed from the deal standpoint. If Starlink shuts
> down in Ukraine, that will be another big blow, and I haven't heard
> anything about that yet one way or the other, but seeing the Elon and
> Trump are in a buddy movie, it could happen. Now note that Trump has
> not removed (to my knowledge) a single sanction from Russia, and going
> after the shadow fleet of oil tankers is likely to hurt Russia badly.
> They are, after all, pretty much a gas station with a president.
> Trump's drill baby drill approach to oil helps keep the lack of
> Russian oil from economically tanking the rest of the world, so thank
> him for that.
>
> I want Ukraine to win. I think they can win. But I'm not sure the
> Europeans have the iron dome thing figured out to the degree the US
> has, so even with Europe's help, Russia might be better off. The
> Russians just bombed a hotel that had Americans in it... so that's
> potentially a tangle.
>
> I personally believe that China is on its way to demographic collapse
> within the next decade. Russia isn't far behind and the war has made
> their inevitable demographic collapse closer for them. Russia also has
> the problem that their economy is really based upon the war now, and
> if the war ends, the Russian economy is left holding its entrails in
> its hands like a disgraced Samurai. That's not going to be pretty no
> matter how the war ends unless America is willing to hold Russia up in
> exchange for Putin stepping down or something drastic.
>
> Trump's "gold card" approach to immigration won't solve the USA's
> demographic issues by itself, but it could bring some talent in from
> around the world, which is probably a good thing for the US, even if
> it might be a bad thing for everyone else. Eventually, I think the US
> is in the best demographic position of any of the three great military
> powers.
>
> The biggest mistake Ukraine could make at this point would be to think
> they can win without the US. If they get that delusion firmly in their
> heads, this is going to get far worse before it gets better.
>
> In conclusion, Trump is a mad man, but he's a mad man on a particular
> mission to strengthen the US position vs the rest of the world. Now,
> let's suppose that Europe and Russia get into a full blown shooting
> war. The USA emerged economically VERY powerfully after the last world
> war, because everyone else was bombed into the stone age. Now, this
> assumes that nobody breaks out the nukes. Then his gambit fails
> entirely. I don't think WWIII is Trump's FIRST desired outcome, but in
> the end, it won't hurt the US all that much if he also withdraws from
> Nato, or at least rule 5 for a while. I don't think America sits out
> forever if it starts to look like Russia might actually get the band
> back together with Poland, Latvia, Estonia, etc. Even Trump wouldn't
> stand for that for too long. Congress would start to get extremely
> antsy, and the US is still officially a representative republic.
>
> The LOOOONG shot here, is that Trump made a deal with Russia not to
> interfere in Ukraine so he can invade Greenland with impunity. We get
> our rare earth fix either way... but this seems a little too
> un-American for Trump, so I don't really think that's what's going on,
> but it could be a backup position.
>
> It has been inevitable that the US has to withdraw from being the
> policeman of the world for some time. We can't be expected to pay for
> the whole world's security when we have a hegemony of military power.
> Neither Russia nor China can beat the US militarily without resorting
> to nukes, and I'm not sure Russia's nukes would even work anymore. Let
> alone against the US.
>
> Now, the mystery for me is how the trade war with Mexico and Canada
> helps Trump. I'm still noodling on that one.
>
> -Kelly
>
> On Wed, Mar 5, 2025 at 9:37 AM Henrik Ohrstrom via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> > Hi all, this is the highest concentration of members of the USA that I
> have contact with.
> > Your esteemed leader are doing strange stuff.
> > Can you please explain what's up with this sudden support of the former
> soviets?
> > Considering Spikes suspicious attitude towards the baltic states just
> due to the unfortunate fact that they where occupied by the Moscow state
> during the cold war, how come that the republican party now are happy to
> support that same socialist state?
> >
> > Also all this talk about invading countries that have been actively
> supporting the USA is, strange.
> > Why is that something you seem to support?
> >
> > And last but not least, if trump et al are busy abolishing the first
> amendment,  what is stopping them from doing the same with your beloved
> second?
> >
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