[ExI] Please explain

Wed Mar 12 05:09:34 UTC 2025

Yes.

On Tue, Mar 11, 2025, 4:21 PM Darin Sunley via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> I addressed that above. While reasonable people can disagree about the
> precise degree of isolationism Trump is aiming for, there is absolutely
> zero doubt that Trump wants North America as Fortress USA.
>
> I started this month thinking there was a strong undercurrent of
> preference for China over the US in Canada's parliament, but that they were
> trying to play Switzerland between the two.
> I am now utterly convinced that China owns the entire governing coalition,
> and a significant amount of the opposition Conservative Party, lock, stock,
> and barrel, through a combination of positive and negative incentives.
>
> Everything about the tariffs on Canada is signalling to Canada, and even
> moreso to China, that the situation is unacceptable to Washington. It may
> be one of the few things the Executive branch, the state Department, and
> the CIA agree on.
>
> On Mon, Mar 10, 2025 at 4:18 AM Kelly Anderson via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> This is my best shot at trying to make sense of it from a US centric
>> perspective. Trump is NOTHING if not USA First.
>>
>> Trump is a deal maker. It is what he knows, and he plays dirty. He
>> knows that to get a great deal, he has to negotiate really hard with
>> both sides. One of the key points of negotiation is that unless you
>> are ready to say "no!" and be seen to mean it, you can't get the best
>> deal. I think he's REALLY interested in the mining deal with Ukraine,
>> to pay for the expenses not only now, but into the future, and he's
>> willing to let people die in Ukraine for a minute to get that. I'll
>> take him at his word that he's tired of supporting combatants that are
>> killing each other in a war of attrition and that he thinks Europe
>> should shoulder more of the responsibilities, especially financially.
>> If you look at Europe's response over the last week, Trump has
>> accomplished his goal of getting Europe to step up and defend their
>> own backyard. They are shitting their pants in a race to rearm Europe.
>> Ukraine is, unfortunately, a pawn here. His most recent move of
>> stopping all satellite intelligence, including private US satellite
>> companies, from getting to Ukraine is a big deal and almost seems
>> unnecessary, unless viewed from the deal standpoint. If Starlink shuts
>> down in Ukraine, that will be another big blow, and I haven't heard
>> anything about that yet one way or the other, but seeing the Elon and
>> Trump are in a buddy movie, it could happen. Now note that Trump has
>> not removed (to my knowledge) a single sanction from Russia, and going
>> after the shadow fleet of oil tankers is likely to hurt Russia badly.
>> They are, after all, pretty much a gas station with a president.
>> Trump's drill baby drill approach to oil helps keep the lack of
>> Russian oil from economically tanking the rest of the world, so thank
>> him for that.
>>
>> I want Ukraine to win. I think they can win. But I'm not sure the
>> Europeans have the iron dome thing figured out to the degree the US
>> has, so even with Europe's help, Russia might be better off. The
>> Russians just bombed a hotel that had Americans in it... so that's
>> potentially a tangle.
>>
>> I personally believe that China is on its way to demographic collapse
>> within the next decade. Russia isn't far behind and the war has made
>> their inevitable demographic collapse closer for them. Russia also has
>> the problem that their economy is really based upon the war now, and
>> if the war ends, the Russian economy is left holding its entrails in
>> its hands like a disgraced Samurai. That's not going to be pretty no
>> matter how the war ends unless America is willing to hold Russia up in
>> exchange for Putin stepping down or something drastic.
>>
>> Trump's "gold card" approach to immigration won't solve the USA's
>> demographic issues by itself, but it could bring some talent in from
>> around the world, which is probably a good thing for the US, even if
>> it might be a bad thing for everyone else. Eventually, I think the US
>> is in the best demographic position of any of the three great military
>> powers.
>>
>> The biggest mistake Ukraine could make at this point would be to think
>> they can win without the US. If they get that delusion firmly in their
>> heads, this is going to get far worse before it gets better.
>>
>> In conclusion, Trump is a mad man, but he's a mad man on a particular
>> mission to strengthen the US position vs the rest of the world. Now,
>> let's suppose that Europe and Russia get into a full blown shooting
>> war. The USA emerged economically VERY powerfully after the last world
>> war, because everyone else was bombed into the stone age. Now, this
>> assumes that nobody breaks out the nukes. Then his gambit fails
>> entirely. I don't think WWIII is Trump's FIRST desired outcome, but in
>> the end, it won't hurt the US all that much if he also withdraws from
>> Nato, or at least rule 5 for a while. I don't think America sits out
>> forever if it starts to look like Russia might actually get the band
>> back together with Poland, Latvia, Estonia, etc. Even Trump wouldn't
>> stand for that for too long. Congress would start to get extremely
>> antsy, and the US is still officially a representative republic.
>>
>> The LOOOONG shot here, is that Trump made a deal with Russia not to
>> interfere in Ukraine so he can invade Greenland with impunity. We get
>> our rare earth fix either way... but this seems a little too
>> un-American for Trump, so I don't really think that's what's going on,
>> but it could be a backup position.
>>
>> It has been inevitable that the US has to withdraw from being the
>> policeman of the world for some time. We can't be expected to pay for
>> the whole world's security when we have a hegemony of military power.
>> Neither Russia nor China can beat the US militarily without resorting
>> to nukes, and I'm not sure Russia's nukes would even work anymore. Let
>> alone against the US.
>>
>> Now, the mystery for me is how the trade war with Mexico and Canada
>> helps Trump. I'm still noodling on that one.
>>
>> -Kelly
>>
>> On Wed, Mar 5, 2025 at 9:37 AM Henrik Ohrstrom via extropy-chat
>> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>> >
>> > Hi all, this is the highest concentration of members of the USA that I
>> have contact with.
>> > Your esteemed leader are doing strange stuff.
>> > Can you please explain what's up with this sudden support of the former
>> soviets?
>> > Considering Spikes suspicious attitude towards the baltic states just
>> due to the unfortunate fact that they where occupied by the Moscow state
>> during the cold war, how come that the republican party now are happy to
>> support that same socialist state?
>> >
>> > Also all this talk about invading countries that have been actively
>> supporting the USA is, strange.
>> > Why is that something you seem to support?
>> >
>> > And last but not least, if trump et al are busy abolishing the first
>> amendment,  what is stopping them from doing the same with your beloved
>> second?
>> >
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