[ExI] not that rare earth (part 2 of at least 2)

[John Clark]

On Mon, Nov 3, 2025 at 11:59 AM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

 *> Yesterday we were told the Mountain Pass facility had its environmental
> permits in place and would be producing all we need in two years.*


*I wish them well, but until very recently that mine shipped all the ore
they dug out of the ground to China for refining, it remains to be seen if
they have the skills to perform that delicate chemical process on an
industrial scale that is economically viable. And in two years, three at
the most, we will know if China or the US won the AI race, or if neither
country won and the only winner is the AI. *

*>  we saw what happens when local grids rely too much on wind power: the
> huge cold front on 7-8 December 2017 caused shortages in availability in
> Texas.*


*A two day shortage eight years ago is not sufficient for a blanket
condemnation of wind power, and I can't help but wonder if your dislike of
it is just a reflection of He Who Must Not Be Named dislike of it. And
Texas is unique, it is the only state in the lower 48 that insisted on
having its own power grid, so it will not give power to nearby states when
they run into temporary electrical shortages, and they cannot borrow power
from nearby states when they temporarily run low on electricity. Iowa gets
63% of its electricity from wind power and they seem to be very happy with
it.  China has also embraced wind power.   *

*> Power prices doubled since 2017.  Keith you and I never noticed our
> power bills back then.  We do now.*


*It's not just you two, I predict that the power bills of everybody in the
US are going to skyrocket in the next few years due to AI's insatiable
demand for electricity and the fact that the US has not increased its
electric power generating capacity in over a decade. *

*> Power distribution seems simple enough in theory, but it boggles the
> mind in actual practice.*


*When I was in college the most difficult course I had was not the one on
electromagnetic theory or the one on the quantum mechanical nature of
transistors, it was but one on how real world (not the simplified idealized
examples seen in beginning textbooks) transformers, electric motors and
generators affect large scale power distribution. I vividly remember the
semi hysterical laughter that came from the entire class when they got
their first look at the final exam questions. About an hour after that test
I got the worst headache of my life, I don't think it was a coincidence.*

* John K Clark *


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