[ExI] not that rare earth (part 2 of at least 2)

Tue Nov 4 23:58:39 UTC 2025

From: John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> 
Subject: Re: [ExI] not that rare earth (part 2 of at least 2)

On Mon, Nov 3, 2025 at 11:59 AM <spike at rainier66.com <mailto:spike at rainier66.com> > wrote:

 > Yesterday we were told the Mountain Pass facility had its environmental permits in place and would be producing all we need in two years.

>…I wish them well…

OK good.  For a minute it sounded like you were cheering for China.

>… it remains to be seen if they have the skills to perform that delicate chemical process on an industrial scale that is economically viable…

Economically viable depends on the price of the product.  Speculators will scale up the existing facility using known technology which has been in use for decades.  It doesn’t look complicated to me: the same differential solubility, followed by fractional crystallization procedures they taught us in analytic chemistry half a century ago.  It is time consuming with plenty of cycles, but nothing high tech.  

>…And in two years, three at the most, we will know if China or the US won the AI race …

Ja but that comment explains your outlook to some extent, and mine.  Perhaps you are a lot more certain that AI will somehow cause the need for REEs to go away or become irrelevant.  You are thinking the Singularity is nearly upon us.  I agree it might be, but it might not be.  If it is, then none of this matters.  If it isn’t, then all of this matters.  

>  we saw what happens when local grids rely too much on wind power: the huge cold front on 7-8 December 2017 caused shortages in availability in Texas.

>…A two day shortage eight years ago is not sufficient for a blanket condemnation of wind power…

It isn’t a blanket condemnation of wind power.  It is a demonstration that wind power does not reduce the need for alternative power generation fueled by the old-fashioned combustion.  In some cases, adding wind power may necessitate additional fossil fuel alternatives, for it increases demand for power, which must be there in the oddball case when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing.  Otherwise fatalities occur.

>… and I can't help but wonder if your dislike of it is just a reflection of He Who Must Not Be Named dislike of it….

The addition of political considerations only confuses an already wildly complicated engineering task.

>…It's not just you two, I predict that the power bills of everybody in the US are going to skyrocket in the next few years due to AI's insatiable demand for electricity…

Oh the profit potential here, mercy.

>… the fact that the US has not increased its electric power generating capacity in over a decade…

See previous comment, and multiply by about e.

> Power distribution seems simple enough in theory, but it boggles the mind in actual practice.

>…When I was in college the most difficult course I had was not the one on electromagnetic theory or the one on the quantum mechanical nature of transistors, it was but one on how real world (not the simplified idealized examples seen in beginning textbooks) transformers, electric motors and generators affect large scale power distribution….

Sheesh ain’ t that the truth.  Rocket science is EASY compared to power distribution.  My power class was so damn crazy hard, our professor told us the harsh truth: he wouldn’t hire any of us (he was a retired manager for Pacific Power.)

>…I vividly remember the semi hysterical laughter that came from the entire class when they got their first look at the final exam questions. About an hour after that test I got the worst headache of my life, I don't think it was a coincidence.  John K Clark

After I took Power, I decided to not go to graduate school.  That class resulted in multiple injuries and serious fatalities.  That class was so hard, some of the students lives were saved because they judged themselves too stupid to operate a loaded pistol on themselves.  That class was so hard, failure was not an option, it was required.

This would be cool, and probably already exists: a power grid management sim game, a good realistic simulation, where you hafta make all the investment decisions and technical calls on everything, do the design of the grid, perhaps with multiple players as managers of competing and collaborating adjacent power grids.

Does anyone here know if such a thing exists.  One would think so.

spike

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