[ExI] what if... the singularity isn't near?

[spike at rainier66.com]

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 



 

>.Other Singularity thinkers, might we have been fooling ourselves?  Do
elaborate to exhaustion please.  Ben?  Adrian?  John?  Other Singularity
hipsteers?

 

spike

 

 

And BillK of course, my apologies BillK, the one feller who uses "AI" better
than any of us, along with any lasses who are here, who still tolerate us
(how you do it I don't know (insufferable bahstids we are)) how do we really
know the Singularity is near?  Do we really know that?

 

Reason I ask: the recent debate on "rare" earth elements is really all about
the Singularity.  If the Singularity really isn't near, then the USA is OK:
we are cranking up production of "rare" earths fast enough, no problem.  The
military has enough because it anticipated the need and stockpiled, the
electronics industry has enough because it doesn't need much, the wind
turbine industry doesn't have what it needs but it isn't clear we need that
industry.

 

If we really are are two or three years from the cap S Singularity, our
paltry efforts to get more wind power or whatever else, are not fast enough.
The Chinese will get an advantage from slightly cheaper electric power which
might (somehow) contribute to their getting AI before the good guys and
might (somehow) be significant.  But if we are not two or three years from
the Singularity, then never mind, the slight delay in REEs resulting in
slightly higher power cost is irrelevant. 

 

John?  BillK?  Adrian?  Ben?  Others?  Are we really that close to the
Singularity?

 

spike

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