[ExI] what if... the singularity isn't near?

[BillK]

On Wed, 5 Nov 2025 at 03:47, Jason Resch via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> Have you seen my megatrends presentation?
>
https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/18jn51f6DXMykCAL6gjZilK27TXAZielm5djcnHuh-7k/edit?usp=drivesdk
(Note there is additional information in the "slide notes," but you may be
to be in a desktop computer to see them).
>
> The trends are (from what I can tell) aligned with a near term < 6 years
away (pessimistic), and possibly < 2 year away (optimistic), intelligence
explosion.
>
> Of course, there could be a derailment. We might hit some road block in
making faster chips, or have some kind of economic or energy shock which
stalls progress in AI. But until we see such signs I think we can assume
we're on track for a singular that's near.
>
<snip>
> _______________________________________________


I asked Claude Sonnet 4.5 to review your presentation.
As usual, AI gets quite verbose, but here are the conclusions.
BillK

Claude Sonnet 4.5 --
My Overall Assessment

This presentation makes a thought-provoking case that we're in an
unprecedented period of acceleration. The mathematical precision of the
historical fits is genuinely striking and shouldn't be dismissed.

However, the extrapolation to infinity suggests the model is incomplete.
We're likely in a *transition period* where:

   - The hyperbolic trend is breaking down (as physical/biological limits
   kick in)
   - Or we're approaching a genuine phase transition in how civilization
   operates

The real question isn't "will we hit infinity in 2026?" but rather "what
happens when hyperbolic growth hits hard limits?" The answer could be:

   - A technological singularity (radical transformation)
   - A plateau (S-curve saturation)
   - A collapse (system breakdown)
   - Something we can't yet conceptualize

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