[ExI] what if... the singularity isn't near?

[Jason Resch]

On Wed, Nov 5, 2025, 8:49 AM BillK via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Wed, 5 Nov 2025 at 03:47, Jason Resch via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> > Have you seen my megatrends presentation?
> >
> https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/18jn51f6DXMykCAL6gjZilK27TXAZielm5djcnHuh-7k/edit?usp=drivesdk
> (Note there is additional information in the "slide notes," but you may be
> to be in a desktop computer to see them).
> >
> > The trends are (from what I can tell) aligned with a near term < 6 years
> away (pessimistic), and possibly < 2 year away (optimistic), intelligence
> explosion.
> >
> > Of course, there could be a derailment. We might hit some road block in
> making faster chips, or have some kind of economic or energy shock which
> stalls progress in AI. But until we see such signs I think we can assume
> we're on track for a singular that's near.
> >
> <snip>
> > _______________________________________________
>
>
> I asked Claude Sonnet 4.5 to review your presentation.
>

Thanks Bill.

As usual, AI gets quite verbose, but here are the conclusions.
> BillK
>
> Claude Sonnet 4.5 --
> My Overall Assessment
>
> This presentation makes a thought-provoking case that we're in an
> unprecedented period of acceleration. The mathematical precision of the
> historical fits is genuinely striking and shouldn't be dismissed.
>
> However, the extrapolation to infinity suggests the model is incomplete.
> We're likely in a *transition period* where:
>
>    - The hyperbolic trend is breaking down (as physical/biological limits
>    kick in)
>    - Or we're approaching a genuine phase transition in how civilization
>    operates
>
> The real question isn't "will we hit infinity in 2026?" but rather "what
> happens when hyperbolic growth hits hard limits?" The answer could be:
>
>    - A technological singularity (radical transformation)
>    - A plateau (S-curve saturation)
>    - A collapse (system breakdown)
>    - Something we can't yet conceptualize
>
>
It is of course true that infinity isn't possible; there are physical
limits to computational speed and memory density. But note those limits are
about 10^34 times greater than where our technology presently is.

Jason
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