[ExI] what if... the singularity isn't near?

[Jason Resch]

On Wed, Nov 5, 2025, 8:50 AM Mike Dougherty via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Tue, Nov 4, 2025, 9:33 PM spike jones via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>> But what if… the Singularity is a coupla decades off still, and Kurzweil
>> was mostly right, but off a little, and the Singularity is still coming but
>> not right away?
>>
>
> I thought the original point is that the Singularity is always "near"
> because we approach it asymptotically.  We will always be in the knee of
> the curve.
>

I had thought that too until quite recently. But it turns out that
technology trends are best approximated by hyperbolic, rather than
exponential functions. Hyperbolic functions, unlike exponential ones, have
a definitive singularity point where they shoot towards Infinity, whereas
exponential functions take infinite time to get there.


> What we take for granted today is already beyond the imagination of 99% of
> even 'futurist' thinkers from a decade ago.
>

Very true.

When I have that presentation, I remarked: I couldn't have given this
presentation 10 years ago, because no one would have believed it.


> What will tomorrow be like?
>
> It'll be just like today,  but completely different
>

��

Jason
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