[ExI] You'd better sell your bitcoins

[Jason Resch]

On Tue, Nov 18, 2025, 7:45 AM John Clark via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Mon, Nov 17, 2025 at 8:29 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
>
>> * >> Nobody can pinpoint the exact day a quantum computer capable of
>>> running Shor’s algorithm will become operational,*
>>
>>
>> * > And I don't need to.*
>>
>
> *You do if you insist on waiting till the last possible second to sell
> your Bitcoins. If you insist on wringing every last cent out of your
> Bitcoin investment then your economic timing needs to be perfect. Is your
> timing perfect?*
>
>
>>
>> *>the introduction of said computer might not happen within any
>> predefined timeframe, thus meaning that any bet against it might*
>
> * never be judgeable, I might be willing to bet against such an event.*
>>
>
> *Maybe. There is a possibility that the timeframe given by one of the
> world's greatest experts in quantum computers is wrong and your intuition
> is right, thus there is a non-zero probability that you won't go broke. But
> are you really willing to bet that your opinion about quantum computers is
> better than his?  It doesn't seem like a very good bet to me. *
>
>
>> * > When - and if - said computer comes into existence, then it may be
>> time to reevaluate continued holding of Bitcoin based on this metric.*
>>
>
> *Are you kidding? At that point it will be far far too late.  *
>
> * > But not until then.*
>
>
> *Well… Enjoy your money while you have it.  *
>
>
>> * > As someone else mentioned, Bitcoin may be upgraded to use quantum
>> cryptography by then, negating the threat.*
>
>
> *That's not even on the horizon. Quantum Cryptography is as secure as the
> laws of physics, however you'd need a completely new Internet for that with
> hardware (not just software) that works on entirely different principles
> and is very expensive and temperamental. **Currently that is not even
> close to being practical for large scale use. I'd be willing to bet that
> the AI Singularity will happen well before that. *
>

See:
https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/10/16/btq-technologies-announces-quantum-safe-bitcoin-using-nist-standardized-post-quantum-cryptography/

It's planned for 2026.

You don't need a new Internet to implement these new algorithms. You are
thinking of quantum key exchange, which is neat but pointless.


> *Maybe you meant quantum resistant algorithms, they are possible and
> semi-practical but it would mean that each bitcoin transaction would
> require even more energy and computation that it already does, and Bitcoin
> is already extraordinarily wasteful.*
>

The transaction block size can be increased to fit as many transactions as
before per block. If this is done then there would then be no net increase
in energy involved per transaction.

* And the transition between the elliptic curve encryption that Bitcoin
> currently uses to one of the quantum resistant algorithms would be very
> difficult to achieve if you wanted backward compatibility;*
>

People will just need to send their money to new addresses. From the user's
point of view it will be like any other transaction.

* it would be especially difficult to protect coins that have been spent
> even once because then their public key would have been already exposed. *
>

Usually spent coins go to new addresses with new public keys (which remains
hidden until those funds are spent).


> *And there's another thing, some believe that these new algorithms are
> resistant to attacks by quantum computers but that has never been
> mathematically proven. *
>

What's more unsettling is to realize that none of the conventional
algorithms we use every day (EC, DSA, RSA, etc.) have never been
mathematically proven as hard either (even against classical computers).

*So as I've said before, when people see that quantum computers have
> produced millions of Bitcoin bankruptcies they're going to be very
> suspicious of any cryptocurrency regardless of what algorithm they use. *
>

I think your fears are overblown. The same problem exists for online
banking, using credit cards online, etc. All that becomes insecure too.
This is why NIST is recommending upgrading to quantum secure algorithms
now, before it becomes a problem for all Internet security. It's not just a
problem for cryptocurrencies. There is time enough to upgrade.


> *In summary I don't see how cryptocurrency has a future. *
>

Do you also believe online banking has no future? Should investors sell
Amazon stock because secure online transactions are doomed and online
shopping won't be secure anymore?

Jason
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