[ExI] You'd better sell your bitcoins

[Adrian Tymes]

On Tue, Nov 18, 2025 at 7:44 AM John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Mon, Nov 17, 2025 at 8:29 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>> >> Nobody can pinpoint the exact day a quantum computer capable of running Shor’s algorithm will become operational,
>>
>> > And I don't need to.
>
> You do if you insist on waiting till the last possible second to sell your Bitcoins.

And I am not.  The sequence of events is:

* That computer comes out.
* Sell your Bitcoins at this point.  (If that was the only factor
influencing when to sell, which it never is, but granting this point
for argument's sake.)
* The public demo of the algorithm is run.
* Then there might be a panic.

Notice that there is one further event after the time comes to sell.
Thus, the time to sell according to this strategy is not "the last
possible second" - but neither is it "right now".  There are other
options than just those two.

>> > When - and if - said computer comes into existence, then it may be
>> time to reevaluate continued holding of Bitcoin based on this metric.
>
> Are you kidding? At that point it will be far far too late.

Not at all.  The panic won't happen until the public demo of the
algorithm, which can not happen before the computer actually exists.
Before the computer actually exists, you can't run the algorithm - and
nothing on this line short of actually running that algorithm will be
comprehendible to the public, to the point that they can't even fear
it yet.