[ExI] You'd better sell your bitcoins

[Jason Resch]

On Tue, Nov 18, 2025, 10:48 AM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> On Tue, Nov 18, 2025 at 7:44 AM John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> wrote:
> > On Mon, Nov 17, 2025 at 8:29 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >>> >> Nobody can pinpoint the exact day a quantum computer capable of
> running Shor’s algorithm will become operational,
> >>
> >> > And I don't need to.
> >
> > You do if you insist on waiting till the last possible second to sell
> your Bitcoins.
>
> And I am not.  The sequence of events is:
>
> * That computer comes out.
> * Sell your Bitcoins at this point.  (If that was the only factor
> influencing when to sell, which it never is, but granting this point
> for argument's sake.)
> * The public demo of the algorithm is run.
> * Then there might be a panic.
>
> Notice that there is one further event after the time comes to sell.
> Thus, the time to sell according to this strategy is not "the last
> possible second" - but neither is it "right now".  There are other
> options than just those two.
>
> >> > When - and if - said computer comes into existence, then it may be
> >> time to reevaluate continued holding of Bitcoin based on this metric.
> >
> > Are you kidding? At that point it will be far far too late.
>
> Not at all.  The panic won't happen until the public demo of the
> algorithm, which can not happen before the computer actually exists.
> Before the computer actually exists, you can't run the algorithm - and
> nothing on this line short of actually running that algorithm will be
> comprehendible to the public, to the point that they can't even fear
> it yet.
>

Markets tend to be forward-looking.

But trying to guess what and when an irrational public will do is like
trying to win in then "Guess 2/3rds of the average game."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guess_2/3_of_the_average

The most rational thing to do then is to try to anticipate (and act before)
what the irrational players, (and the rational players trying to predict
the irrational players), will collectively do.

But as Keynes said: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can
remain solvent".

Jason
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