[ExI] You'd better sell your bitcoins

[Adrian Tymes]

On Tue, Nov 18, 2025 at 11:39 AM Jason Resch via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> Markets tend to be forward-looking.
>
> But trying to guess what and when an irrational public will do is like trying to win in then "Guess 2/3rds of the average game."
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guess_2/3_of_the_average
>
> The most rational thing to do then is to try to anticipate (and act before) what the irrational players, (and the rational players trying to predict the irrational players), will collectively do.
>
> But as Keynes said: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

On the other hand, markets don't act on information they don't have.

We might understand the implications of a computer that can run Shor's
algorithm.  Most investors in Bitcoin do not, so the theoretical
implications are meaningless to them.  Thus, the mere potential
existence is not "information" that they have the ability to act upon.
A public demonstration would be, though - and we can see in advance
when that public demo may be coming (to wit: when such a computer is
actually introduced, if the vulnerability is still present - see other
discussion, but: if it's impossible to remove the vulnerability, then
by definition it will still be present and this reduces to just
waiting until that computer has been introduced, at which time we can
also see if the counterclaim that the vulnerability will be removed
has come true by that point), which gives us sufficient window in
which to act.