[ExI] AI 2027: A Realistic Scenario of AI Takeover

[spike at rainier66.com]

….> On Behalf Of John Clark via extropy-chat
Sent: Monday, 6 October, 2025 1:21 PM
Cc: John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com>



>…The people at AI2027 made this video about what they expect will happen between now and 2030 and it's pretty close to what I think will happen. Spike I really hope you watch it because even if you disagree with it at least you'll understand why I can't get all hot and bothered about the national debt. In their scenario there is a branch point around November 2027, one branch, the most likely branch, leads to human extinction but the other branch does not because the president made a wise decision. The trouble is in November 2027 He Who Must Not Be Named will still be in power. 

 

 <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_onqn68GHY> AI 2027: A Realistic Scenario of AI Takeover

 

John K Clark

 

 

Cool video John, thanks.

 

The weakness in the argument is that branch point in Nov 2027.  Your scenario assumes POTUS has way more power than he really has.  

 

Note the current situation: POTUS and the Republican majority (55-45) working together, can’t get the minority party to reopen government.  Sixty votes are needed in the senate, just to get temporary funding thru the month of October.  POTUS and the Republican majority can’t get even that.  So… the government can pretend to be shut down, while the mainstream parties cheerfully blame each other.  As entertaining as this is… it is considered counterproductive in some ways, and those who are not getting their pay are not a bit entertained.

 

A supreme court decision (Bright vs Raimondo, 28 June 2024) removed the basis for the US executive branch to create de facto law thru executive branch bureaucracy.  The court (correctly in my opinion) decided that the bureaus created the functional equivalent of law.  

 

The constitution doesn’t empower the exec branch to do that.  The legislative branch is empowered with creating law.  So… the EPA and federal agencies covering land use and sea regulations are the legal equivalent of advisory boards to congress.  Congress isn’t stopping that wind farm out there.  

 

We are told the current POTUS did that (stopped the project) but only by freezing government funding.  That’s all he can do.  He cannot legally order the project to stop.  The BOEM (federal bureau of Ocean Energy Management) is part of the executive branch, which does not have the authority to stop the project.  Congress could theoretically do stop the effort, but I am quite confident congress will not do that.  

 

So… BOEM halts funding (all it can legally do) investors swoop in, buy the place at a fire sale price, finish it and start up that 704 MW we are told it will produce.

 

However…

 

There is always a however in the investment world, and there are nuances up the kazoo.

 

The big however is in integrating that 704 MW into the existing grid, because it is dependent on that grid being able to handle all that intermittent unpredictable power.  

 

With too much unpredictable intermittent power generation, the grid reliability goes down.  Recall what happened in February 2021, in Texas which has all that wind power.  When a huge arctic bomb cold front came down there, it killed a bunch of people.  The official death toll is 246 perished directly as a result.

 

That observation leads to the nuance in wind power (and solar as well.)  That notion that the Revolution project will supply 704 MW and supply 350,000 homes is misleading in an important way.  That kind of thing convinced the California voters to compel our power company to buy green energy, which turned out to be green not because it was clean, but because once you consider end to end cost, clean and green power is expensive as all hell.  I have the power bills to prove it.

 

Understanding of how intermittent unpredictable sources integrate into the grid is necessary to avoid getting one’s ass kicked in the power investment game.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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