[ExI] health insurance: was RE: AI 2027: A Realistic Scenario of AI Takeover

[spike at rainier66.com]

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of spike jones via extropy-chat



 

>…All this has me pondering that long-march bet on US government continues to pretend to be shut down for the long haul.  The Open Now crowd has the long-term accumulating advantage of the shorter simpler slogan, so they know they can just hold and wait.  Even at 38 cents, that bet is compelling.  Spike

 

 

 

In the future-meme betting game, one must always take care to protect one’s money from oneself: we all tend to read into data what we already believe.

 

I believe the Open Now crowd has a long-term advantage, but from what I can tell by the votes, the Stay Closed crowd, after an initial setback, appears to be gaining ground:

 



 

This looks to me like the Openers will have a damn hard time getting to 60 votes, which is what is needed to open.  The Stay-Closeders (is closeders even a word?) do not benefit from 60 votes, because anything less than 60 Openers is Stay Closed.

 

Meanwhile… that vote was only to get temporary funding thru the end of October.  We are already only three weeks and three days from that, so perhaps the Stay Closeders will win by default.

 

So… 

 

Perhaps I will pay 39 cents a share for the long-march stay closed bet.  Ideas or insights welcome.

 

spike

 

 

    

 

 

 

 

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