[ExI] Free Trade

Fri Oct 17 21:48:48 UTC 2025

From: John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> 
Sent: Friday, 17 October, 2025 2:09 PM
To: spike at rainier66.com
Cc: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] Free Trade

On Fri, Oct 17, 2025 at 4:48 PM <spike at rainier66.com <mailto:spike at rainier66.com> > wrote:

>> From Jan 2021 to Jan 2023, the current stay-closed party held all three seats of power.  

>…As you pointed out you need 60% to get anything done in the Senate, and the Democrats never had anything close to that…

Ja, but the majority party controls the agenda.  This enables them to negotiate, and they do so from a position of strength, needing only a few crossovers.

>…And the Republicans still had control of the Supreme Court…

The Supreme Court has no parties, and is irrelevant in negotiating law.

>… did you know that the US constitution does NOT say one word about political parties?

Of course. 

>…And yet now it seems that half the population consider themselves to be a Republican first and an American second…

Surprising then that they can’t get the government to re-open.

…

>…They tried but the Republicans refuse to negotiate with the Democrats on ANYTHING, I suppose because it's a sin to negotiate with SATAN regardless of if you're in a position of strength or weakness… John K Clark

Oy vey, again with the religion stuff John, not my thing.  But one might see that actually reopening government would be a good first step.  As the government stays closed, more and more of us get to see that life goes on without it, and it is great for reducing the deficit.  Worthy projects and research find alternative funding sources (such as the New Jersey windfarm did) more reliable ones than federal government, which we can all easily see is going deeper and deeper into debt, with interest payments already dominating its spending.

I have reluctantly withdrawn my standing offer on the phase 2 shutdown betting, where I offered 30 cents a share for the long march shutdown (reopen after 25 November) just as I see it hit 30 cents a few hours ago.  I now think several of the stay-closed party will choose the open-now party’s my-way option (open now, no-strings CR) rather than the highway (staying closed) before Thanksgiving.  I just don’t know yet how I am going to play that, but I might choose the 14 to 16 Nov window, since those are going for 5 cents a share.  Less likely than a few days later, but more than 5 cents.  I consider it more likely the Big Ugly Bill will pass in the 17 to 19 Nov window but I am unlikely to offer 25 cents for those shares.  I might give 15 cents for them.

If the month of November ticks by without government re-opening, I might sit here in soorow and misery as I did for most of October, fretting about the money I coulda won, had I not chickened.  The dollars I didn’t make are taunting me now, sombrero on my head, calling me the SACO, for Spike Always Chickens Out.  Woe is me, tis true, tis tragically true.

One last point regarding negotiating from a position of strength please: that notion should be supplemented with negotiating from a position of comfort.  While the open-nowers are back home with their constituents, they are comfortable in town halls telling their voters they are already voting to re-open now.  Thune and Johnson are in a position of strength and comfort.  Of course they are going to press their advantage.

spike

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