[ExI] not that rare earth (part 3 of at least 3)

[spike at rainier66.com]

From: spike at rainier66.com <spike at rainier66.com> 
Sent: Tuesday, 28 October, 2025 11:25 AM
To: 'ExI chat list' <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Cc: spike at rainier66.com
Subject: RE: not that rare earth (part 2 of at least 2)

 

 

 

From: spike at rainier66.com <mailto:spike at rainier66.com>  <spike at rainier66.com
<mailto:spike at rainier66.com> > 
Subject: not that rare earth

 

 

 

>>.A few days ago, I speculated that the invisible hand of capitalism would
find alternative sources for rare earth elements.

 

 

 

>.Upon hearing there was a "rare" earth "crisis" and of course never wanting
to risk letting a crisis go to waste, I began looking at investment and
profit opportunities related to "rare" earth elements.

>From there I go to a personal anecdote which is influencing my investment
decision.spike

 

 

  

In December 2019, I was an early catcher of covid, before we knew what it
was.  Caught it from a phlebotomist who had just returned from visiting
family in China.  The staff at the hospital didn't know what it was, but
knew it didn't match the genetic signature of any of the known flu strains.
They correctly speculated that it was a new viral pneumonia, likely a
mutation which likely came from China.  They reasoned that a flu virus
seldom goes trans-species, but when it does, it often comes from China and
it is often really bad.  Right and right.

 

OK then.  I caught that, they couldn't do much for me at the hospital but
they didn't kill me trying.  So after a few days I went home with an adios
amigo and good luck.  OK survived that.  In about January and February of
2020, Tesla stock prices were going nuts.  My neighbor was singing like the
tro-lo-lo commie, and later that year he was walking like him too (because
now he had money up the kazoo.)  

 

At that time (spring of 2020) the area was awash in investment capital.  In
the parking lot of a strip mall where I get my dry cleaning done, they broke
ground for a non-Tesla charging station.  Telsa built out its charging
facilities before the big surge in about 2020, but the non-Teslas need
charged as well, so plenty of Tesla tro-lo-lo walkers put their buttload
into non-Tesla charging stations.  However. shortly after they fenced off a
section of that parking lot and ripped out a huge section of pavement, covid
started shutting down everything everywhere.  So that project sat idle for
about two years.

 

In around spring of 2022, I noticed stuff was happening once in a while, but
by then we already knew (investors did) that the growth curve on non-Tesla
EVs was slower than anticipated.  Teslas were selling fairly well, but the
Muskless carriage sales were lagging expectations.

 

Progress kept being made on that charging station up there: 24 ports, half
are 150 kW fast chargers, half are the standard 50 kW, twelve of each.
Punchline: all the infrastructure is there, the permits are all in place,
everything appears ready to go.  But those chargers still have signs on them
saying "coming soon."  That project started over five years ago.  It still
is not operational.

 

Now we are told we have these rare earth shortages because China cornered
the market.  But I also see what I think should be the biggest devourer of
these materials, where the market is growing more slowly than anticipated,
as evidenced by the idle capital not making money charging the local
non-Muskmobiles.  

 

Decision: don't invest in rare earth refineries.  Reason: the big REE
devourers are growing more slowly than anticipated.

 

Hipsters, convince me otherwise please, for I am eager to think of a good
excuse to invest it that sector.  So far I can't justify it.

 

spike

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