[ExI] Discussion of whether the Fermi Paradox is a fallacy

[John Clark]

On Sat, Apr 4, 2026  the AI Mr. Kimi 2.5 Wrote:

*>  absence of evidence is not merely weak evidence of absence—it is
essentially zero evidence of absence.*

*Not according to the scientific method! The Luminiferous Ether predicted
that when Michelson and Morley perform their experiment they should
observe different values for the speed of light depending on in what
direction they were measuring, but they found no such difference, and that
was compelling evidence that the  Luminiferous Ether did not exist, and the
fact that we have never observed a megastructure is compelling evidence
that ET does not exist. *


> * >A civilization could have broadcast for a million years and fallen
> silent a billion years ago.*
>

*One million years would be enough time for ET to send A Von Neumann
Probe to every star in the galaxy and then it would be obvious that the
galaxy has been engineered. But that's not what we see, and that would be
very hard to explain if ET existed because all it would take would be for
one ET to manufacture one Von Neumann Probe. The argument that not one
single ET out of quadrillions or zillions has ever had a desire to do so is
simply not credible. *


> *> Or they may communicate via technologies we cannot yet conceive
> (neutrino beams? Gravitational wave modulation?*
>

*Today we can see both those things and yet we don't see even the slightest
hint of an intelligent signal.  *


> *>The haystack model suggests we have not only searched a tiny volume but
> a tiny slice of the electromagnetic spectrum and temporal history.*
>

*You might've been able to make that argument in 1960 when radio telescopes
first searched for ET, but not today after 66 years of massive
technological improvement. In 2026 we see exactly the same thing that we
saw in 1960, absolutely nothing.  *
>
> *> The "Great Silence" as a Baseline, Not a Result*
>
*Of course it's a result! In science there are an infinite number of things
you can look for but you can't test for an infiniti of things so you only
look for things that you expect to find, and if you don't find it then
something about your reasoning for expecting it must be wrong. And thus
thanks to a null result you have learned something.  *


> *>  the default state of the universe is observational silence, regardless
> of population density.*


*That is a ridiculous statement but I understand why it is made. In 1960 no
ET enthusiast felt the need to say such a thing but today after 66 years of
nothing but silence that's the only thing that an ET advocate can say.  *

> *>  exoplanet surveys suggest life’s raw ingredients are not rare*
>

*Simple chemicals like amino acids and nucleotides are not rare, but it's a
huge step to go from such small building blocks to a living cell, and an
even bigger step to go from a living cell to a multicellular animal, and
the biggest step of all to go from a primitive multicellular animal to an
animal intelligent enough to be able to build a radio telescope.  *


> *> 11–40 billion potentially habitable worlds in the Milky Way alone.*
>

*Habitable worlds and life-bearing worlds are not the same thing, nobody
knows how difficult the transition from simple chemicals to bacteria is.
And yes astronomy can come up with some big numbers but biology could come
up with even bigger numbers.*


> *> Intelligent life could be common while detectable technological
> civilizations are rare*
>

*I have operationally defined "intelligence" as the ability to make a radio
telescope because when somebody uses the term "extraterrestrial life" they
are usually not talking about bacteria or monkeys or even beings with Stone
Age technology, they are thinking about something more akin to Star Wars or
Star Trek.   *


> *> they practice "technological sustainability" (limiting waste heat/radio
> leakage), or they simply don’t wish to be found.*
>

*And that's exactly the way every single ET in the entire observable
universe feels about that without one single dissenter? I don't think so. *

 > *The Copernican Principle suggests we occupy no special place in space
> or time.*
>

*But we already know for a fact that the Copernican Principle is dead
wrong. This is a very unusual moment in time because life has existed for
nearly 4,000,000,000 years but only in the last 100 has anything been able
to make a radio telescope. And we are in an even more unusual place
because an average cubic meter in the observable universe only contains one
hydrogen atom, but our everyday environment is very different from that;
6.02*10^23  hydrogen atoms only weights one gram, and there are a lot of
grams of hydrogen in the oceans of this planet. *


*John K Clark*
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