[ExI] My prediction

Sat Jan 3 12:38:20 UTC 2026

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of John Clark via extropy-chat
Cc: John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [ExI] My prediction

I will make two more predictions: 

>…  1) The idea of Universal Basic Income will start to become mainstream….

That idea became mainstream thousands of years ago, but we have no objective measure available.  The idea has been mainstream as long as there has been anything we think of as government.  The idea has never been in the majority as far as I know, but the idea has been mainstream.  No one knows how to make it happen or when the idea started to become mainstream.

>…2) As a result of #1 on January 1, 2027 the popularity of the current president will be at its lowest level that any president has had in the last 50 years….

We only have comparable objective data going back 27 years on that.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/trump-obama-bush-second-term

We can use that data however, betting sites are using it:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8477/What-will-Trump's-RCP-job-approval-rating-be-on-Jan-7-(Two-week-length)

Generally they only go out two weeks.  Bets a year away don’t get much interest because of inflation.  

Although the two bets do not directly relate to each other, you could reword your bets to something like this: 

Congress will pass a bill providing UBI to all US citizens but POTUS will veto it in 2026 (bet 1) and the current POTUS’ approval rate as measured by RCP will drop below his two predecessors (bet 2.)

Your chances on bet 2 are good: I would estimate that one will sell for about 70 cents now.  Bet 1, meh, 2 to 3 cents at best.  If bet 1 is at 2 and bet 2 is at 60, I wouldn’t buy either of them.  I would buy a Not on bet 1 for 98, and a Not for bet 2 at 30 however.  

What would you pay?  We can make it play money: RespectCoin or something.

spike

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