[ExI] My prediction

[John Clark]

On Sat, Jan 3, 2026 at 12:16 PM <spike at rainier66.com> wrote:

*> the US military forces have already achieved their goal and left*
> [venezuela]


*It doesn't sound like that to me! He Who Must Not Be Named has just
decreed on nationwide television that the United States would “run the
country” until a transition to local leadership in Venezuela is made.
Historically have such strategies been quick and easy to implement? Have
there never been any slight complications, like a decade of gorilla
warfare? *

* John K Clark*





>
>
>
> *From:* extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> *On Behalf
> Of *John Clark via extropy-chat
> *Sent:* Saturday, 3 January, 2026 2:47 AM
>
> *Cc:* John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [ExI] My prediction
>
>
>
> *I will make two more predictions: *
>
>
>
> *>…1) The idea of U**niversal Basic Income will start to become
> mainstream but Mr. I Lowered Drug Prices By 1600 Percent will not embrace
> the idea because if he doesn't even understand how percentages work then he
> certainly can't understand the gargantuan economic and
> social disruptions that AI will produce**…*
>
>
>
> *Clarification: this prediction is already wrong, for the notion of UBI
> has already started to become mainstream.  Do offer an objective metric
> please.*
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *>…2) As a result of #1 on January 1, 2027 the popularity of the current
> president will be at its lowest level that any president has had in the
> last 50 years….*
>
>
>
> *Did you mean by the RPC average?  How will the winner of this bet be
> determined unambiguously please?*
>
>
>
>  *>…**By the way, I woke up this morning and learned that we are now at
> war with Venezuela. Venezuela?! *
>
>
>
> *That was a short one.  The citizens are being urged to “take to the
> streets” but it is unclear what good that will do, for the US military
> forces have already achieved their goal and left.*
>
>
>
> *>…** I'm sticking with my prediction. *
>
>
>
> *John K Clar**k*
>
>
>
>
>
> *John, we must find a way to determine if you were right.  We only have
> strictly comparable data going back 22 years.  As I understand it, RCP
> determined a standard by which polls could be included in their average in
> 2004 and have not changed since then.  So we really only have two other
> comparables, 43 and 44 (POTUS 46 didn’t have a second term so there is no
> comparable data available.)  There were polls before 2004, but we need a
> way to average several polls in order to make any sense of them.*
>
>
>
> *I propose we use RCP average and use the data we have.  Since there are
> only three who are in the race, I would have offered you 66 RC cents for a
> Not share.  However you seem very sure of yourself, so I will only offer
> you (or anyone else) 50 cents for a Not on John’s second wager.  Come on,
> it’s just a game, and we are among friends here.*
>
>
>
> *spike*
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.extropy.org/pipermail/extropy-chat/attachments/20260103/cc2ffbde/attachment.htm>