[ExI] My prediction

[spike at rainier66.com]

From: John Clark <johnkclark at gmail.com> 
Sent: Wednesday, 7 January, 2026 4:39 AM
To: spike at rainier66.com
Cc: ExI chat list <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org>
Subject: Re: [ExI] My prediction

 

On Tue, Jan 6, 2026 at 5:12 PM <spike at rainier66.com <mailto:spike at rainier66.com> > wrote:

 

>>… If it wasn't for the electoral college Al Gore would have been president and we would not have had the Iraq war….


 >  John recall your prediction in 2016 about the risk of nuclear war.

 

>…I certainly understand why you don't want to talk about the Iraq war….

 

I don’t mind talking about it: I am agin it.  I am even more agin unlimited nuclear war.  After the fact we know that the probability of that horrifying world-shattering event was zero with the leader who won the 2000 election, but we don’t know what it was had it been otherwise.  Conclusion: the outcome of the 2000 election saved the world from risk of nuclear war.

 

>… and I recall what I said in 2016 very well, I said I didn't expect a nuclear war but if He Who Must Not Be Named became president the probability of it happening would be larger (but still less than 50%) than if Hillary Clinton became president….

 

That prediction was wrong.  We know after the fact that the probability was zero point zero the way it came out, but non-zero had it gone the other way.

 

>…As for today, I still don't think there will be a nuclear war but the probability of it happening would have been less if Kamala Harris or even Joe Biden was president….

 

John your track record on those predictions is not good sir.

 

 

> Can we define the term “man” please? 

 

>…Oh so you wanna play the define game, that's usually a sign that somebody is losing an argument….

 

{8^D  Thanks for that candid admission.  Our society is living an absurd self-parody by pretending we can’t define gender while simultaneously pretending we can define race.  One can only imagine what this nonsense looks like from the point of view of people well outside our cultural mainstream.  We surely appear to have lost our collective minds.

 

>…And if the Electoral College was eliminated and somebody in Wyoming was unhappy that they were living in a state that had little political influence then all they would need to do is move to California….

 

They can do that now.  People living in Wyoming individually control a larger fraction of a state government.  In the easily foreseeable future, most of the heavy lifting in government will be carried by states.  So if individuals want more influence on state and national government, the logical thing to do is move to Wyoming.

 

>…California has 18 times as many electoral votes as Wyoming, but California has 67.3 times as many people as Wyoming. And both states get exactly the same number of senators. 

That’s right.

>…I have asked the following question before but I have never gotten a straight answer….

>...If Wyoming was as liberal as Massachusetts and California was as conservative as Mississippi, would you still be defending the electoral college and the way the number of senators are assigned to each state with such vigor?

Of course.  That marvelous system protects minorities.  You agree it is a good thing to protect minorities, ja?

John I think you get too tangled up in the common right vs left paradigm at the expense of right vs wrong.  Everything isn’t right vs left.  Libertarian is neither right nor left, but it is on the right side of right vs wrong.

>…If AI does advance as fast as I think it will then He Who Must Not Be Named popularity will be in the toilet and so he won't be able to cancel the November 2028 election as he would like…. John K Clark

 

Being popular doesn’t mean a POTUS has the authority to cancel an election.  Those are done at the state level, intentionally.  Then the Supreme Court does what it does, the military hands over the nuclear codes, all of this independent of the guy who is no longer POTUS on20 Jan following the election.  The system thought of the possibility of a POTUS refusing to leave office and has a way to deal with it John.  If a POTUS could hold the office, he would hold the office.  The system works.

 

spike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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