[ExI] 2026 Is the Year of the Singularity — Elon Musk

[Adrian Tymes]

The math in that paper appears based on projections of human
population growth: if there are infinite humans, there's infinite
invention.

Problem is, the rate of human population growth has been slowing down
lately.  Projections are no longer for a singularity of people.

So that specific projection of 2026/2027 is not credible.  There may
be others, such as projecting from advances in AI by themselves, but
ramifications from accelerating human population increase are no
longer supported.

On Wed, Jan 7, 2026 at 12:38 PM Jason Resch via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> If you plot the pace of historic change (based on lists of major historic events), the function: S = 1886/(2027 - t) where t is the year, yields a R^2 of 99.91%. Should this trend continue, then near the end of 2026/early 2027, the pace of historic change approaches infinity. See: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/18jn51f6DXMykCAL6gjZilK27TXAZielm5djcnHuh-7k/edit?slide=id.g3823cb99630_0_58#slide=id.g3823cb99630_0_58 for more details.
>
> Jason
>
>
>
> On Wed, Jan 7, 2026 at 12:28 PM John Clark via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> Elon Musk believes that artificial intelligence is accelerating even faster than I do, but of course both of us have been known to be wrong before:
>>
>> 2026 Is the Year of the Singularity — Elon Musk
>>
>> John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
>> et.
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