[ExI] 2026 Is the Year of the Singularity — Elon Musk

[Jason Resch]

There are 3 projections, each one is based on a different data set. Two of
them point to ~2027, one of them (GDP) pointed to 2005.

The question of infinite human investors aside, AI is now participating in
invention. What is the population of AI inventors?

Jason

On Wed, Jan 7, 2026 at 12:47 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

> The math in that paper appears based on projections of human
> population growth: if there are infinite humans, there's infinite
> invention.
>
> Problem is, the rate of human population growth has been slowing down
> lately.  Projections are no longer for a singularity of people.
>
> So that specific projection of 2026/2027 is not credible.  There may
> be others, such as projecting from advances in AI by themselves, but
> ramifications from accelerating human population increase are no
> longer supported.
>
> On Wed, Jan 7, 2026 at 12:38 PM Jason Resch via extropy-chat
> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >
> > If you plot the pace of historic change (based on lists of major
> historic events), the function: S = 1886/(2027 - t) where t is the year,
> yields a R^2 of 99.91%. Should this trend continue, then near the end of
> 2026/early 2027, the pace of historic change approaches infinity. See:
> https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/18jn51f6DXMykCAL6gjZilK27TXAZielm5djcnHuh-7k/edit?slide=id.g3823cb99630_0_58#slide=id.g3823cb99630_0_58
> for more details.
> >
> > Jason
> >
> >
> >
> > On Wed, Jan 7, 2026 at 12:28 PM John Clark via extropy-chat <
> extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
> >>
> >> Elon Musk believes that artificial intelligence is accelerating even
> faster than I do, but of course both of us have been known to be wrong
> before:
> >>
> >> 2026 Is the Year of the Singularity — Elon Musk
> >>
> >> John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
> >> et.
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