[ExI] 2026 Is the Year of the Singularity — Elon Musk

[Keith Henson]

I have used AI to help with the trash-to-fuel design.  It is a big
project, and it is not clear if it can be done before the singularity
changes things beyond recognition.

How many of the present economic drivers will exist beyond the
singularity?  Unless people upload in large numbers, they will need to
eat.  Assemblers need feedstocks unless they are running on solar
energy and mining carbon out of the atmosphere.

The future exists within physical restraints unless you upload.  In
that case, you can have as much simulated gold as you want.

Keith

On Wed, Jan 7, 2026 at 9:52 AM Jason Resch via extropy-chat
<extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>
> There are 3 projections, each one is based on a different data set. Two of them point to ~2027, one of them (GDP) pointed to 2005.
>
> The question of infinite human investors aside, AI is now participating in invention. What is the population of AI inventors?
>
> Jason
>
> On Wed, Jan 7, 2026 at 12:47 PM Adrian Tymes via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>>
>> The math in that paper appears based on projections of human
>> population growth: if there are infinite humans, there's infinite
>> invention.
>>
>> Problem is, the rate of human population growth has been slowing down
>> lately.  Projections are no longer for a singularity of people.
>>
>> So that specific projection of 2026/2027 is not credible.  There may
>> be others, such as projecting from advances in AI by themselves, but
>> ramifications from accelerating human population increase are no
>> longer supported.
>>
>> On Wed, Jan 7, 2026 at 12:38 PM Jason Resch via extropy-chat
>> <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>> >
>> > If you plot the pace of historic change (based on lists of major historic events), the function: S = 1886/(2027 - t) where t is the year, yields a R^2 of 99.91%. Should this trend continue, then near the end of 2026/early 2027, the pace of historic change approaches infinity. See: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/18jn51f6DXMykCAL6gjZilK27TXAZielm5djcnHuh-7k/edit?slide=id.g3823cb99630_0_58#slide=id.g3823cb99630_0_58 for more details.
>> >
>> > Jason
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > On Wed, Jan 7, 2026 at 12:28 PM John Clark via extropy-chat <extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> Elon Musk believes that artificial intelligence is accelerating even faster than I do, but of course both of us have been known to be wrong before:
>> >>
>> >> 2026 Is the Year of the Singularity — Elon Musk
>> >>
>> >> John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
>> >> et.
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