[ExI] Prediction market abuses by government agents

[John Clark]

On Thu, Jan 15, 2026 at 2:19 PM Keith Henson via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:


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> *> Hours before U.S. Army Delta Force commandos captured Venezuelan
> President Nicolás Maduro and his wife during a nighttime raid in Caracas,
> an anonymous trader, using a newly created account on the prediction market
> Polymarket, wagered more than $30,000 that Maduro would be out of office by
> Jan. 31, 2026. The trader walked away with more than $400,000 in profit.
> [...] The transaction bore the hallmarks of insider trading.*
>

*That is as suspicious as hell! And it's disturbing as hell, far more so
than ordinary insider trading because it's not just about money, life and
death is involved.  *


> *> While the identity of the trader remains unknown, the mere possibility
> that a government insider could have pocketed more than $400,000 should be
> reason enough for Congress to act.*
>

*I would like to bet that whoever this anonymous trader is ("traitor" would
probably be a better word) he has deep connections with the administration
of He Who Must Not Be Named because I don't see how anybody who didn't have
knowledge of exactly when the invasion would occur would make such a bet,
and I don't see how anybody who was not closely associated with the
administration would have the knowledge.  **But I cannot make the bet
because as long as the Republicans control Congress there will be no
investigation and therefore nobody will ever know who the TRAITOR is; or
rather we will never be able to prove who he is, but one could make an
educated guess. *


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> *> On Jan. 7, traders wagered on whether the White Housepress briefing
> would last longer than 65 minutes. The market assigneda 98 percent
> probability that it would. Then, with seconds to spare,the briefing was
> abruptly ended — delivering massive, near-instantpayouts to those betting
> against the odds*


*Somebody is getting greedy so there will probably be more
"coincidences" like this, a lot more.*

*> President Donald Trump has used crypto ventures to enrich himself
> and his family, there is reason to fear that government insiders could
> do the same through prediction markets.*


*And POTUS is the ultimate government insider. *

*John K Clark*
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