[ExI] Prediction market abuses by government agents

Sat Jan 17 16:46:02 UTC 2026

From: extropy-chat <extropy-chat-bounces at lists.extropy.org> On Behalf Of John Clark via extropy-chat

>…That is as suspicious as hell! … there will be no investigation and therefore nobody will ever know who the TRAITOR is; or rather we will never be able to prove who he is…And POTUS is the ultimate government insider.   John K Clark

POTUS is one of them, but in the case of the raid, I can think of some who are insiderer.  Had I known ahead of time the exact time the raid on the Maduro compound was being launched, I would have bet against it being successful.  That the US military could somehow get in there, grab the bogey and get back out without a single US fatality or injury is something I woulda bet against and lost.

But there is a reason why I would have lost that bet: before that raid, I didn’t know about drone-carried psycho-acoustic weapons.  I would have judged that to be a cover story.  Well… apparently those are real, for I can think of no other explanation for how those choppers got in there, dropped the marines, came back, fetched them and returned to base with Mr. and Mrs. Bogey and without bullet holes in the choppers.  Those things should be pretty easy to hit with ground fire.

OK then.  That bet could have been made by anyone on the base from which the choppers deployed.  Helicopters make a lot of noise and they aren’t really fast, so anyone living on that base would know ahead of time what was up, in time to grab up the standing offers on that bet.  

The top military people and chain of command still would not know a critical piece of information: the truthfulness of the inside source who gave them the floor plan for the bogey’s sleeping quarters and for his truthfulness in reporting real time on bogey’s exact position, using encrypted messaging on StarLink, disguised as porno, with the message encoded in the least significant bit of each pixel.  The insider could by lying, he could tip off bogey, who would then go into alternate armored quarters.  It could have all been a trap, and oh what a trap it would be: Maduro could be holding a hundred elite forces Marines right now.

Only the insider himself knows if he is telling the truth, but he doesn’t know for sure if the raid will be successful either, for he doesn’t know what technology the yanks will bring.  But if he is truthing in those encrypted porno files, telling the truth on the layout of the compound and bogey’s exact real time position, he might estimate the chances of a successful raid way higher than the betting public, as would the marines, as would the contractors who built the drones, as would the contractors who supplied the alleged psycho-acoustic weapons.  

The Maduro insider could be a top commander inside the compound, who could order his own troops to stand down, or deploy them outside the compound while deploying his own insiders who know to not shoot at the American choppers, for their own commander will become the next Venezuelan president and they will become his personal guards, with promotions.  That insider is the only one who knows for sure if he was telling the truth.

Just for fun please: how many here believe the unofficial story on those drone-carried acoustic weapons and how many think that is a cover story deigned to protect the insider who gave us the floor plans of the bogey’s compound?  I am undecided on that.  I estimate about 40% chance it is a cover story, that the base was commanded by an ambitious Maduro hater, who ordered the guards to stand down or leave the compound, that the whole thing was enabled by a Venezuelan insider who was telling the truth.  That is the best way I can explain why the marines got in there, grabbed the bogey and got back out without the entire compound becoming a shooting gallery and the choppers limping home looking like Bonny and Clyde’s last car.

spike

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