[ExI] that ai video

[John Clark]

On Wed, Jan 21, 2026 at 8:18 AM spike jones via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

*> All of my AI predictions have been wrong: we got there on all of it
> before I expected it.*


*A lot of people over-estimated the difficulty of achieving AI because they
looked at the incredible complexity of biology and all the wheels within
wheels and figured we'd have to understand how all that worked first. But
we know that all the complexity can be drastically reduced. The human
genome only has 3 billion base pairs. There are 4 bases, so each base can
represent 2 bits, there are 8 bits per byte, so that's just 750 Meg. And
that's for an entire human being, not just a brain. And even that 750 Meg
figure is way too high. Studies have shown that only about 5% of our genome
is preserved over deep time indicating that evolution just doesn't care
about the other 95% because it's parasitic, it neither helps nor harms
survival, it just goes along for the ride throughout the generations. *

*MosMost of our genome really is Junk*
<https://www.newscientist.com/article/2508876-human-plant-hybrid-cells-reveal-truth-about-dark-dna-in-our-genome/>

*> all such predictions should come with a timeline to arrival, a specific
> date, along with specific carefully worded, unambiguous objective criteria
> for judging true or false.*


*How about when will somebody be able to order an AI to do this? "Write,
produce and direct a new 2 or 3 hour completely original Harry Potter
movie, use no Human actors but make it look as if you did, write the
screenplay and compose the music. Have it set in the familiar Harry Potter
world but the plot be original and, although compatible with, not be based
on any of the books. Have the four main characters be a 12 year old Harry,
Ron and Hermione, but also an adult Tony Soprano. Use no humans to help you
in making any part of the movie.  **And make it so that **at least 1000
human beings decide to watch it either because of word of mouth
recommendation or because of pure chance, and at least 80% of them say the
movie should be rated R, and it looks like it was** directed by Quentin
Tarantino, and judge the film to be either good or excellent". *

*Just a thousand people may seem like an absurdly small number to see a
major motion picture, but when AIs get that good and excellent movies
become very common, the competition for viewing hours might get so intense
that a thousand people seeing any one particular movie might be unusual,
most movies, however good they may be, might be viewed by nobody except for
the person who gave the order to make it. One obvious prediction I think
anybody can make right now, the era of superstar actors receiving
astronomically huge paychecks has already reached its peak. *

*John K Clark  *
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