[ExI] Von Neumann Probes

[Dylan Distasio]

Of course none of us know the proper values to plug into each variable of
Drake's equation with any kind of certainty, but based on the overwhelming
galactic silence and reading the book Rare Earths (along with other similar
writings), I've come to the sad conclusion that the odds are very high that
we are the only intelligent life in the observable universe.   There just
seem to be way too many steps to get here and many of them may be very
unlikely to be repeated with any kind of regularity.

As an example, plate tectonics may be required for intelligent life to
evolve, and of course the more obvious leap from prokaryotes to oxygen
loving eukaroytes, along with our moon and a Jupiter like gas giant further
out to limit impact size and frequency.   There are many more
considerations as well.

I would expect to find mats of bacterial scum covering many planets
throughout the universe, but believe the odds of intelligent life evolving
with the capability of sophisticated culture, language, and tool building
are likely so low that Fermi's paradox is not really a paradox...

On Sun, Jan 25, 2026 at 7:44 AM John Clark via extropy-chat <
extropy-chat at lists.extropy.org> wrote:

>
> *That's why I think that, although life may be common, we are almost
> certainly the only intelligent life in the observable universe. *
>
>
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